March 5, 2015
By Mish Schneider
I feel like the market looks-upbeat but a bit tired. Upbeat because the sectors I have been watching are holding up. Tired, because it seems that the prices in those sectors haven’t moved much as if waiting for either the Red Bull to kick in or the chlorophyll to take effect.
For starters, Semiconductors (SMH) are holding between key support around 57.00 and key resistance 57.75. The Financials (XLF) look similar between support at 24.00 and resistance 24.60.
The indices, especially my fave Russell 2000, need a push back over 123 to get its fire going and NASDAQ has a line in the sand now at 108.
That at least gives us some parameters as we head into the final day of the week.
Other than that, I have spent a good deal of time this week researching physics and the relevancy to the market for a book I am working on. Point is, I have found myself relearning Newton’s Laws of Motion considering that topic slipped from my long term memory years ago. In short, since an object in motion stays in motion, we could surmise that the upward motion of the overall market should continue. However, what stops the forward motion of an object is an equally strong opposing force. Or what I refer to lately as wolves.
Therefore, using volume as representative of the opposing force, since that has lacked big time so far this week, watch to see which side volume comes in on-pedal to the metal on the superhighway to new highs or acceleration into a brick wall.
S&P 500 (SPY) Held the channel high and needs to clear 211.17
Russell 2000 (IWM) 123 is the number for a long with fairly tight risk
Dow (DIA) Over 181.50 clears the 10 DMA and 180 remains key support
Nasdaq (QQQ) Held 108 key support but now, needs to clear Thursday high
XLF (Financials) Key points are the 50 Daily Moving Average at 24.15, the highs since the 02/02 at 24.60 and finally, 24.90-the 6-month January Calendar Range high.
KRE (Regional Banks) 40.00 pivotal now with 41.06 the January Calendar Range High to clear
SMH (Semiconductors) Over 57.75 better but otherwise, look at 56.00 support
IYT (Transportation) Inside day. Holding the 50 DMA for now which is a good thing
IBB (Biotechnology) “I want to pump you up.”
XRT (Retail) Although confirmed a reversal top, held on rather impressively
GLD (Gold Trust) 115 hangs on the balance
GDX (Gold Miners) 20.00 the major support at this point to hold
USO (US Oil Fund) Confirmed the Recovery Phase but with no volume to speak of
UNG (US NatGas Fund) As per request, I see good basing action support at 13.00 with the 50 DMA the area to clear now for 2 days with volume in order to see more upside
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) I’m speechless (and still lightly long from 33.00)
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Through 45.75 see 47.25 next resistance
UUP (Dollar Bull) About to book my European vacation
IFN (India Fund Inc.) Looks like it’s trying for new highs
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