May 30, 2012
By Mish Schneider
Tuesday turned out to be a rally to resistance which was a concern but clearly not a certainty until Wednesday U.S. traders awoke to the big gap lower. So what happens now? Since the rally did nothing to abate the strong warning phase, we have to respect that the next possibility is more likely lower prices.
S&P 500 (SPY) With the failure of 132.75, back to thinking the 65-weekly moving average is next.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 75.50 the 200 DMA
Dow (DIA) Opened beneath 125, and kept south. Now, 122.35 next support.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Best we can say is that this held an exponential moving average thanks to AAPL mainly. But unless it gets back through 62.60, no reason to cheer
GLD December 2011 low and May 2012 low creating a possibility of a double bottom, but that has to prove itself out.
XLF (Financials) 13.70 last swing low and just beneath the 200 DMA
IBB (Biotechnology) 123 the 50 DMA
SMH (Semiconductors) Why we look for 2 days above or below a major moving average before a phase change confirmation
XRT (Retail) Held the 10 DMA so watching today's low to hold or break
IYT (Transportation) Very similar to XRT
IYR (Real Estate) Perfect run to the 50 DMA with a failure which was difficult to trade with the big gap down. 60.00 next area to watch
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLT kind of a shocker on these new all-time highs.
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