May 13, 2020
By Mish Schneider
Last night I wrote about the compression in the weekly gold chart.
Today, gold closed green but did not take out 162 (GLD) or the top of last week’s trading range high.
This is super exciting to watch unfold.
Will it clear?
And if so, how far can the price go up?
Plus, what are the real ramifications for the market?
Elsewhere, we have our Economic Modern Family telling its own story.
Remember I covered channels and wedges on the weekly charts through blogs and StockchartsTV?
Well, that was Season 1.
Today started Season 2.
The clear divergence between the up action in gold and the down action in stocks is noteworthy!
The Russell 2000 IWM, which showed us some promise last week, is now trading under the channel support line.
Sure, it can find support on the way down, but until it gets back over 130, I would not be so quick to buy.
Granny Retail XRT traveled right to the mall or the channel resistance, and turned back.
Prodigal Son Regional Banks KRE was the first to tell us that something was amiss with the new found bullishness.
Transportation IYT, like Granny, never cleared the channel resistance and now trades near the early April lows.
Perhaps the most interesting are the two superstars of the Family, Big Brother Biotechnology IBB and Sister Semiconductors SMH.
IBB is now touching the top of channel it traded in for the last five years. That’s huge. For those like us who did not buy it on this week’s pop, can now decide if this correction gives us a very cheap risk or not.
Semiconductors SMH or the big recent tech run, never has legs for too long once she realizes that her superwoman strength is not enough to save the rest of the Family.
Now, she has broken back down below the bottom channel line. But not by too much. Like IBB, if the market holds from here, a move back over 132 is worth considering, risking to below the 50-Week Moving Average at 125.77 (blue line).
If the lesson from gold today is a foreshadowing, then do not be in a rush to go long. Or if you do, keep the timeframes shorter.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Landed right on the 50-DMA at 120.25. Major support
Dow (DIA) Landed right on the 50-DMA at 229.90. Major support
Nasdaq (QQQ) 221.80 resistance with 209 next major support
KRE (Regional Banks) 30.00 held & must hold, 33.13 is the resistance.
SMH (Semiconductors) 132 pivotal 125.70 support
IYT (Transportation) 140 resistance 136.40 support
IBB (Biotechnology) 128 still key-with some fudge of course
XRT (Retail) 33.50 support 37.15 resistance
Volatility Index (VXX) Closed under 40.00. A gap above compelling
LQD (iShs iBoxx High yield Bonds) 127.50 resistance