August 6, 2020
By Mish Schneider
As Keith and I are heading on a vacation (with social distancing) starting Monday for 3 weeks, this is the last Daily I will write until September 1st.
Yet, not to worry, Geoff Bysshe will be taking over both my subscription service and the writing of the Daily blog.
And if you do not already know this, he is awesome!
Hence, I want to repeat 3 major themes to watch.
First is the focus on the Junk Bonds and High-Grade Investment Bonds (JNK, LQD)
Second is the focus on the banking and financial sectors of the market.
Third is the dollar, low rates, rising metals, up move in sugar and all the factors that still support a stagflation theory.
As long as the Federal Reserve continues to buy debt and high-grade corporate bonds, no reason to get negative on the market.
Also, on that point, any sell-off will surely be met with more Fed accommodation, as well as more government stimulus.
That brings me to why the banks should remain in your crosshairs.
Here is where we see the stress of large unemployment, business foreclosures and loan repayments.
Banks can catch up or remain a ball and chain that might eventually lead to a US downgrade or at the very least, a reason the market will top out.
Finally, with the gold’s parabolic rally, the dollar drowning, the rates dropping and the money supply constantly growing, stagflation is real.
That means watch and trade not only gold and silver, but also the other commodities such as palladium, copper, sugar, lumber, and oil.
The food commodity prices are still at a 100-year low versus the SPY. So, wheat, corn, and soybeans are probably the cheapest investment you can make as at some point, the demand for food must grow, while the production of it has declined.
That is all.
Thank you all for your loyal following and readership!
I will see you soon.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 149 key support
Dow (DIA) 270 now pivotal
Nasdaq (QQQ) New all-time highs
KRE (Regional Banks) 36.80-38.70 range to watch
SMH (Semiconductors) 165-168 pivotal support as it is over an ascending channel
IYT (Transportation) 179-180 now key support
IBB (Biotechnology) 142 resistance 136 support
XRT (Retail) 50.00 pivotal
Volatility Index (VXX) Did not confirm the inverted doji
Junk Bonds (JNK) 105.60 support
LQD (iShs iBoxx High yield Bonds) New highs