March 30, 2019
Weekly Market Outlook
By Keith Schneider
Look at the table above.
The 6 month returns the picture is not pretty.
The sectors that had positive returns are safety plays
One the other hand, the last three months paint an opposite story.
Will the short-term strength persist and overcome the longer-term overhead supply?
Meanwhile, all four key U.S. equity markets bounced this week up about +1% on average.
Gold retreated as did old Miners, and both look technically vulnerable
However, copper, an industrial metal, performed well and is holding a bullish phase.
What has not really hit mainstream news outlets is that Russia and the East have been steadily accumulating the yellow relic while reducing holding of U.S. government debt.
Does Putin know something that we don’t or just doing some long-term retirement planning and diversifying his holdings? (perhaps some real estate in Venezuela and the Ukraine).
The dollar rose this week unfazed by the continued drop in global central bank holdings of the dollar.
In fact, central banks have doubled their holding of the Chinese Yuan from two years ago to 1.9%, which is still small, but steadily gaining traction.
China and other Central Banks have been dumping dollars in favor of the Euro and other foreign currencies.
This week’s highlights are:
Let’s not confuse fundamentals that can take years or even decades to manifest its impact on the markets with making money.
Just keep these factoids in mind when they align with price action because fundamentals don’t matter UNTIL they align with the technical!
For those of you who don’t want to decipher the dance between technical and fundamentals to beat the market, check out our Alpha Rotation Trading Model (it’s our best performing model in 2018).
It uses 5 key inter-market relationships to anticipate the markets next move.
This week, by moving back to a neutral reading.
It’s now poised to rotate out of its profitable bond position. (for more info go here)