Evening Watch List For Nov. 6th

Mish Schneider | November 5, 2012

Market action Monday was neutral to slightly positive having held key support levels but not able to clear key resistance. And, all phases are in warning, which means unclear and at this point more vulnerable than not unless the internals improve. The 50 DMA looms as resistance and the 200 DMA as a mattress to catch them if they fall. Volume was super low and should be again Tuesday.

S&P 500 (SPY) Held the week of 10/26 low at 140.39 which remains support. A move over 142.38 will bring relief Subs: Negative Pivots

Russell 2000 (IWM) Closed above the fast moving average with 81.90 still overhead to clear. 80.56 is the 200 DMA and unless it can get back over 81.90-82.10 area, seems that we could see that and possibly worse. Subs: Pivots Negative

Dow (DIA) Unless this clears 131.35, still wants to visit the 200 DMA Subs: Today's high, R1 and the 10 DMA all line up

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Went back to an unconfirmed warning phase but could not clear the fast moving average. Under the 200 DMA should test the 10/26 low 65.35. Otherwise, the real point to clear is 66.21 Friday high. Subs: Pivots Negative

ETFs:

GLD Inside day after its huge decline. 161.50 its 200 DMA.  

XLF (Financials) Tried 16.00 and closed just below. Still in a bullish phase. Bottom line is that this either has to get back convincingly over 16, or could see the 50 DMA become a distant memory. Subs: Pivots Negative

IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day

SMH (Semiconductors) Back to an unconfirmed recovery phase with an inside day. Subs: Over 32.10 looks good but also has to hold 31.10 Pivots Positive

XRT (Retail) It held the 50 DMA which means, besides the fins, is the other bullish sector to consider. Subs: Want to see this clear R1

IYR (Real Estate) Sloppy-seems to be waiting for the election for next direction.

USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day

OIH (Oil Services) Inside day, again seemingly waiting for election results.

XLE (Energy) Inside day. Subs: Back in a channel and another to look at if crosses the 10 DMA

Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
NOTE: Several of my favorite picks featured on today's video

Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

TIF Reports 11/29. Can wait for R1 and today's high to clear. Max risk is 64.00 the 10 DMA

N Tight risk is 61.56 and the 10 DMA risk is 61.03. Has to clear R1 and today's high

Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
NOTE: Some have a negative stack of pivots but closed above-see that on a day like today more lack of overall interest.

EQT Has to hold today's low. Prefer to see it clear Friday high 61.91

EXP Nice move today. Now has to clear 53.75 and hold 53.00

JBHT Has to clear Friday high 59.13 and hold 57.85 the 10 DMA

EBAY Sideways action which means has to clear 49.60 and hold 48.45

NBL. 95.50 is pivots, over96.76 looks great and has to hold 94.75

PXD Has to break 110 and hold today's low

KSS 54.75 should hold and has to clear 55.25.

LEN Has to clear 38.98 then 39.25 and hold 37.90 the 10 DMA

Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

TRV Has to hold the 50 DMA 68.60 and then clear R1 which lines up with today's high.

Phase Change: FB 20.73 max risk and like to see it fill the overhead gap. Over 21.50 looks good. AMZN If holds 230, another one to look at. However, has to clear 238.70 as well FSLR An unconfirmed accumulation phase and an inside day. However, might have to wait post-election X Inside day and through 21.50 could see a move back to 22.70 and beyond.

Shorts:

Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing

VFC Cannot cross 159.65 R1 to stay weak

NUS Cannot clear today's high under the 200 DMA and has to stay there. Could see drop to 44.25 the 10 DMA