Evening Watch List for September 12th

Mish Schneider | September 11, 2012

Even lighter volume than Monday in the S&P 500with the bounce in price. Plus, it posted an inside day trading range.AAPL dragged down NASDAQ ahead of the new iPhone release. Dow Jones (DIA) made a new high, but closed under the 133.16 level-or old 2012 high. And Russell 2000 (IWM) made a new high and closed on the intraday lows. There is havoc at these levels, which could mean market is churning at resistance. And of course, FED speak Thursday can either yield craps or a big score on the come line.

S&P 500 (SPY) 144.44 has to clear or Monday's action, in spite of the bounce Tuesday, will look ominous. Today was an inside day. Subs: Pivots positive but until that high clears, still working a possible slingshot

Russell 2000 (IWM) As mentioned, new high, closed on the intraday lows. Plus, still needs to get above 84.66, the 2012 high from March. Subs: IWMpossible slingshot pattern but pivots positive

Dow (DIA) This made a new 2012 high then closed below the old high 133.16. The overall pattern though remains bullish.Subs: Pivots positive

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Broke the fast moving average at the end of the day mainly because of folks in AAPL evening up ahead of the product release. Subs: if we look at this as a stock, 2 days correction with the FTP ad 10 DMA lined up at 68.50. Plus back over today's high looks better. Otherwise, under the pivots, could see a drop to 67.50


GLD Has a gap to fill to 165.78 from last Thursday, which still looks possible to fill.

XLF (Financials) 15.71 now resistance this week with high numbers on the weekly RSI.

IBB (Biotechnology) 138.15 the fast moving average. Subs: now correction like a condition 1, therefore, if holds the fast moving average, and takes out today's high , back to looking at this group

SMH (Semiconductors) Closed shy of the 200 DMA although traded above in the post market. Probably needs to clear 33 now or could see 32.25 the 50 DMA

XRT (Retail) After new yearly highs and closing on the intraday lows on Monday, Tuesday there was more correction. More weakness out of the gate and could see 62.20. Subs: On slingshot watch until it clears 63.76. Negative pivots.

IYT (Transportation) Unconfirmed phase change back to accumulation.

IYR (Real Estate)Subs: 66.53 R1 now needs to clear and 65.93 has to hold

USO (US Oil Fund) Under 35.00 and over 36.70 breaks the recent range one way or another

OIH (Oil Services) 41.75 recent high to clear. 40.50 the fast moving average

XLE (Energy) Subs: Negated the slingshot today. Like to see today's low hold

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 16.20 gap to fill for new signs of a rally

Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.

Category 1:
(Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Note: Lots of pullbacks of condition 1 stocks. I have chosen from different sectors to get a broader range. If you see a stock that is a condition 1 with 2 or more days correction not on the list, please ask me if interested. The open should narrow down this list-as any that do not cross the FTP, are off the watch.

MDVN Pullback provided today's low holds. 103.50 is the FTP to cross then R1 and today's high

FIRE 54.43 the 10 DMA support. Like to see it clear the pivots then today's high which lines up with R1. Right now, last week's high is resistance

EBAY 47.80 is the 10 DMA to hold. 48.35 first point to clear, then today's high which lines up with R1. 58.88 the 2005 high

SWI 57.20 max risk. 58.30 the pivots and R1 ad today's high line up

TROW 62.26 max risk. Has to clear 63.15 then today's high.

TSCO 98.25 the 10 DMA to hold. 99.70 the pivots to clear. 101.20 is 2012 high

UA Has to clear 59.40 and hold 58.48. Then, R1 with the recent high 60.81.

SLG 81.38 now should hold. R1 and today's high line up.

ONXX 74.70 is the 10 DMA to hold. 75.90 the FTP to clear and then today's high

Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

IACI Improved in condition. 50.82 is the max risk for swing. Otherwise, 51.87 is the 10 DMA and still working a flag on the daily

UNP 122.10 is a good risk as now, an OR reversal is preferred

WDC 41.00 max risk. Through 42.35 clears the 10 DMA.

LMT Sitting on the 10 DMA if today's low holds. Through 92.56 looks good

EXPE 52.67 the 10 DMA should hold and 53.68 hold even healthier. Recent high or around 58.50 good target

Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

Z Not oversold but held the 50 DMA. Today's high, R1 and the 10 DMA all line up-would wait for that area to clear and risk 40.50

Phase Change: JAZZ probably some news, but huge move today. Would only consider a reversal at this point against the 200 DMA 45.70. CTSH Inside day and200 DMA to hold. Has a gap to 69.50 to fill. Had a possible slingshot so 67.82 has to clear CHRW 57.16 good risk if not using the 50 DMA. Positive Pivots. Best close since July. BWA Unconfirmed phase change to accumulation. Now, 72.90 area should hold to confirm


Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing

TSLA Inside day. Risk 28.16 max.

HUM Crazy looking hammer candle but can now look at a tight risk 70.40

FFIV 96.58 now good risk. 93.60 first level of support

Bye for Now!