Evening Watch List for October 7th

Mish Schneider | November 6, 2012

Day of election and market continues to hold support testing yet another level of resistance be it last Friday's high or the overhead 50 DMA. That puts the technical analysis looking at a very clear window. Either the market continues through these key areas, or fails and brings us back to watching the 200 DMAs. Most important is that no matter what the next administration brings forth, traders keep their minds open to all and any possibilities without emotions.

S&P 500 (SPY) Accumulation in volume and a perfect example of the aforementioned in that it ran to Friday's high which just happened to also be where the 50 DMA lives. Subs: Positive Pivots. 143.72 Friday's high and the 50 DMA or has to hold S1 and today's low which line up

Russell 2000 (IWM) 82.10 now some support, but Friday's high and the 50 DMA are the real areas to clear Subs: Same deal as SPY

Dow (DIA) Accumulation day in volume. Cleared 131.35, but not Friday's high. Then, the 50 DMA is just above that. As with the other indexes, today's low is very important support to keep this rally intact

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Confirmed warning phase and underperformer (AAPL is the culprit). Under the 200 DMA should test the 10/26 low 65.35. Otherwise, the real point to clear is 66.21 Friday high. And even then, far from the overhead 50 DMA. Subs: Pivots Positive


GLD After an inside day, huge move higher on big volume. Filled the gap. Weak warning phase. Expect some digestion before we know next move.

XLF (Financials) Held 16.00 and stopped short of Friday's high 16.20. Through that, should keep going. Under 16 next time, vulnerable.

SMH (Semiconductors) Confirmed recovery phase and cleared Friday high. Next hurdle is the 200 DMA. Want to see it hold today's low.

XRT (Retail) Good move off of the 50- DMA stopping at Friday high 64.00. Subs: Want to see this clear 64.00, then we are talking about new highs

IYT (Transportation) Phase change to unconfirmed accumulation. Subs: right up against the trendline featured on video and not overbought

IYR (Real Estate) Inside day-definitely waiting for election results and a good one to follow the range break Subs: A good stock to watch if this runs is SPG-in a unconfirmed recovery phase

USO (US Oil Fund) Big move, filed gap. Short covering perhaps ahead of election as still in bear phase

OIH (Oil Services) Subs: Over 39.40 looks like a move up but under 39.00 bank more towards the negative

XLE (Energy). Subs: After reentering the channel, clearing the 10 DMA, stopped ahead of the 50 DMA. Either wait to add over the 50 DMA or get out under today's low

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Returned over the 50 DMA

Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.
NOTE: Several of my favorite picks featured on today's video

Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

TIF Reports 11/29. Never broke R1 which now lines up with today's high Max risk is 64.10 the 10 DMA

Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
NOTE: Some have a negative stack of pivots but closed above-see that on a day like today more lack of overall interest.

AEM Improved to condition 1. Has to hold today's low and clear Friday's high.

SLW Improved to condition 1. Has to hold 39.40 to consider holding

N Has to hold today's low. Really should clear 64.92

MTB Getting up there in weekly RSI but with sideways action, could be good miniswing if clears105.33

EQT Has to clear 62.63

TROW only if clears 66.66-then negates a slingshot and goes to new highs.

SAP Over 74.00 makes new highs with good risk using a close over 74 to stick or not

GPOR Post earnings play if gaps over 34.00 then could see move to 2012 highs. Risk is 33.00

EBAY Sideways action which means has to clear 49.60 on a closing basis and hold today's low

PXD Has to break 110.50 and hold today's low

KSS Narrow range day. Has to clear 55.25.

LEN Has to clear 39.25 and hold 37.90 the 10 DMA

Phase Change AMZN If holds 232.70, another one to look at. However, has to clear 239 as well FSLR Watch for OR reversal X Has to hold today's low. Could see the 200 DMA UTX Big move and phase change. Like strength and reversal CSTR had a slingshot which confirmed today with an unconfirmed phase change to recovery. 47.25 support XEC Has to clear 64.26 and hold today's low for a swing COH Confirmed recovery, narrow range inside day. Has to clear 58.17


Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing

MDC Had a slingshot. Closed on the 50 DMA. Has support around 36.63 and should not get over 39.00

KORS Reports 11/13. Under today's low breaks the 10 DMA and could see quick drop to the 50 DMA.

JOY Risk to today's high after slingshot pattern. 62.00 could be some support

Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows

JNPR Narrow range day. Closed under the 50 DMA. Look for a break of S1.

Bye for Now!