Evening Watch List for October 21st, 2011

Mish Schneider | October 20, 2011

Once again, volume (lack of) made buying breakouts and selling breakdowns treacherous especially after the inside day yesterday, which usually signals a directional day to follow. SPY had an accumulation day in volume although still well under the daily average. IWM as well right at the daily average. QQQ had a distribution day in volume, first one since early October. But, QQQ closed above the 200 DMA which keeps the accumulation phase intact. The 4 areas I consider for direction-slope of the 50 DMA, phase, volume and price all indicate that recent action points towards more upside. Now, with overbought conditions alleviated, if liquidity comes in, would be inclined to buy the index ETFs.

SPY: 123.50 a powerful level to clear.

DIA: 116.40 has to clear.

QQQ: 56.30 the 200 DMA. 57.00 pivotal

IWM: Through 71.35 looks good with the 160 EMA at 74.15.


XLK (Technology) Confirmed the phase change from Accumulation to Recovery, but held the 160 EMA. 25.50 now the area to clear.

SMH (Semiconductors) Over 30.20 good sign.

IBB (Biotechnology) Held 94.00 the 50 DMA support. Through 97.50 clears the 160 EMA.

XLF (Financials) Held the daily support at 12.45 perfectly. Over 13.05 clears last week's high and the 70 EMA.

OIH (Oil Service Holders) Tuesday night wrote 117 support, today's low. Now, over 121.05 looks better. A close above the 50 DMA will be first time since early August. Subs-SLB same thing. Over 70.35 clears the 200 weekly moving average.

XLE (Energy) Closed over the 50 DMA 64.50 last week changing the phase to recovery. Now, appears to be consolidating. The 160 EMA next resistance 68.75.

 XRT (Retail) If this is a bottom, could see big move to 58.00. Must continue to close above 50.00.

FCG (Reserve Natural Gas) Held the 17.99 50 DMA. Subs-Over 18.35 will look to re-enter.

Longs:Focusing on the indexes and volume mainly

RHT 3 days under the FTP at 45.12. Can buy ½ and if clears R1 45.92 could add. Risk today's low 44.33. Last December all time high made at 49.00. Has potential to 65.00 if market stays firm. Day to swing

GOOG had the huge gap after earnings and has been consolidating. Must hold 577.40. Pivots neutral with 2 days beneath at 583.94. Must also clear today's high 588.89 to see another test of599.60 and perhaps a move to 623.00 Day to mini

PCP (Oct 27)  2 days under the FTP at 164.96. Condition 1 stock. Nearby risk today's low 163.22. Over R1 166.69 could see 172 before earnings. Day to mini

HLF (Oct 31) Landed on the 50 DMA now good risk 54.80. Must clear the FTP at 55.67 then R1 56.22. Then could go to 60.00 with all time high 63.35. Day to mini

X (Oct 25) On the theme of today's video, picking out bottoms, this came up since it held the 2009 low and has even a clearer risk to today's low 21.77 for the short term trade. Must clear R1 23.17 with the 10 DMA at 23.27. Has resistance at the 50 DMA 26.00, but with the V formation bottom, could get going.Day to mini

Honorable Mention: Must clear R1 JWN (51.32) SPG (117.88) RAX (38.82) R1 NTES* (200 DMA and R1 45.60. Note-could be a short too if fails 43.88) INTU (52.73) FSLR (53.43 but must risk under 50.87)



WHR (Oct 28) Must not clear 56.00. Low this week 51.52. More of a day to miniswing.

SINA Must stay under 84.69 R1 to see a move back down to 65.00. Day to mini

TBT (TLT ultrashort) Through R1 21.65. has not been over the 50 DMA 22.53) since July 25th. We originally recommended this for a swing at 19.25 and using the 10 DMA never gave a reason to exit. Important to note to filter out noise. Day to swing

Honorable Mention: HBC (must not clear 41.00)