Evening Watch List for Nov. 21st

Mish Schneider | November 21, 2011

By Geoff Bysshe, substituting for Mish until 11/28

SPY: Options expiration Friday left the SPY's with an inside day at the bottom of a big down day prior, sitting on the support of the up-sloped 50-day MA, and the lows of a multi-week range. If and inside day is a good indicator of consolidation, indecision and a potential trend change the SPY's are sitting in the right spot. Monday could bring a trend day in either direction because the market is sitting at an important inflection level and has spent the last day and a half going sideways. The same could also be for the DIA and IWM.

QQQ: The only one of the 4 indexes that did not hold its prior day low to for an inside day. It was the weak index today and closed lower than the prior low to confirm a resumed Bearish Phase condition. The Q's are not in over sold territory so there is room to fall. Monday we'll look to see if the Inside days in the other indexes and ETFs lead to and up day and pull the Q's up, or the Q's will continue lower and pull down the others.


GLD: Inside day sitting on the negatively sloped 50-day MA. Day traders could play it either direction. Mini swing traders could also but I would not take home a position that I did not have a profit booked in and closing at least a half an ATR in my favor.

SLV: Inside day and well into the middle of the outside day leaving a lot of room for it to move up or down to the high and low of Thursday. The daily charts are in a bearish, the pivots are slightly stacked positively. I'd leave alone. Stocks to watch related to SLV include a momentum play on the long CDE (a long idea below) and two stocks not yet on the list but sitting at key levels are SLW (sitting on the trend line from the Oct 4 low) and PAAS (sitting and a major swing low in a pretty over sold condition).

XRT: Did not have an inside day. But its downside was halted by the fact that it is sitting at the bottom of the multi-week range, and near the 200-day MA at 50.73. This is the area to watch for long set up or a breakdown.

SMH: Friday's low is equal to Thursday's low and formed and inside day. Like the other indexes we can follow this pattern either way.

OIH: Closed below the prior day low and the low of Friday and now sits right on top the 50-day MA at 121.03. If the 121 level is broken, the short trade could be good for day and Mini Swing traders.

Longs: There is a seasonally bullish bias this week but that 's not much to hang our hats on especially give n the comments you'll read in the "shorts" section below and with our markets being the dog being wagged by the tail of Europe or maybe we're the tail L being wagged by the dog -Europe. Either way the condition is the same - Europe sneezes and our stocks get sick. It's interesting that financials as measured by KRE closed  well, but again - not much to hang a hat on as they are a second tier group.

TLT: As mentioned in Friday's comments this broke the multi-week high of 119.49, but did not close above it. A breakout could lead to new highs over 125. With good support around 118.40 based on daily highs and S1 it is a good reversal and breakout candidate. The low Friday was 118.32 and that holds S1. The point is not to say that the analysis was right, but rather that it is acting as expected. Especially if stocks goes lower this is a good long. Pivots will by slightly negatively stacked and not far from the high of Friday so over the Friday high 119.55 it's a long. A little more risky but worth a shot give the choppy  market is an over reversal that enable a stop below  S1 (118.59 and the Friday low of 118.32) which means if you keep your day trading stops to 1/3 of an ATR (1.95), an OR Long reversal entry lower than  about 118.90 is an interesting day trade. Day to Swing

CDE: See SLV below for additional perspective as this is a silver miner and SLV looks very tenuous   with a very bearish bias but CDE has held up and in the spirit of Mish picking a rabbit out of a hat (full disclosure - she didn't grant me her special powers here) this is one to watch. I'm not throwing darts here - it's got a very positive reading on our "trend power" measures, inversion measures, and sits on the 200-day MA and the positively sloped 20-day and the 10-day is still positive so if it moves over $28.08 I'd be a buyer because it will clear Monday's pivot (negatively stacked) and Friday's pivot and the Friday afternoon high. And you'll have just over a half an ATR risk to the low of Friday (27.26) vs. the high of the daily consolidation at around 29.75 which is equal to just over 1 ATR ($1.41). So if SLV rallies this is a good Mini to Swing trade because if it breaks $30 it could run to 31 then 33 quickly.

AAP: Held up well on Friday. Still has nice daily flag and closed over Friday's high and its 3-day pivot high after a few closes under the pivot low in the context of a positively stacked 10-20-50 and 200-day MA. Pivots are positively stacked too. And S1 lines up with Friday's low. 68.19 could be key resistance intra-day but look for OR breakouts in a healthy market or OR Reversals Long that enable a stop below intra-day levels of 67.74 or prior low and S1 (67.38). If it gets going 71 is a reasonable target. Day to Swing.

These have daily patterns that have held up, but should clear their FTP before an entry.


Shorts: GOOG, AMZN and AAPL all performed terrible on Friday. If that continues don't expect a strong up day. I don't see any reason to look for any new shorts when Friday's list updated is right on track.

WYNN: An inside day when the market does the same is simple consolidation that could go either way but the daily here it down. The pivot stack is flat. The key level because of the volume is the Thursday low (119.17). A big support level is 117.40 for a target and major break down. Look for a short as long as its below the Thursday high of 124.85 and preferably the Friday high of 123.13. Day to Swing

BID: Continues to break down below multi-week range. Prefer an OR Reversal below R1 (30.56), and key resistance level is 30.32. Day to Mini

SINA: Same idea as WYNN but Thursday is not an big volume day so key off of Friday's range. Look for OR Reversal that enable a s stop over Friday high of 75.75, but preferably initiated with an OR Failure below R1 of 75.56.

Other to watch for OR Reversals or breakdowns