The market is wearing shock absorbers. The 200 Daily Moving Average appears to be the cushion while it traverses on uneven roads. Since shock absorbers also have springs meant to dampen spring oscillations, we will call the fast moving average the spring rate or resistance area. A more mundane way to describe the market action right now is low volume, trading range.
S&P 500 (SPY)Still looking for it to cross 132.60 or continuing on the assumption that 200 DMA is next. Subs: Negative Positive
Russell 2000 (IWM)Hugging the 200 DMA. A higher open and would think to follow it to upside. Gap lower, trouble Subs: Pivots Negative-has to cross R1
Dow (DIA) Almost cleared an important level-almost. With a DOJI day now, like it over Tuesday highs onlySubs: Pivots Positive
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Inside day. Tells me that next move is to follow the way the range breaks.Subs: Pivots Positive
ETFs:
GLD I got short and then covered on the close for no other reason other than I had no real advantage after a tight trading range and did not want to carry overnight risk. But, negative bias prevails
XLF (Financials) DOJI above the 200 DMA-14.22 next hurdle. Subs: Got intoPNC against the 200 DMA
IBB (Biotechnology) Acting well and best news is that it is not overbought
XRT (Retail) Hard to short with the gap lower, but overall, unless it clears57.80, looks lower from here with the 200 DMA 55.50
IYT (Transportation) Held the 200 DMA and closed with a DOJI. If pulls away from Monday high, looks much better
IYR (Real Estate)Acting well, but really needs to clear the 50 DMA
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLT hammer candle on the fast moving average.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Category 1:(Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: N/A
Category 2:(Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
AMZN Entry today on 5 minute opening range. Now has to hold 224 nearest risk and approaching overbought on weekly
BIIB Entry June 4th for swing traders. Now, Narrowest range in 68 days so paused for perhaps another leg. Max risk 140.57 the 10 DMA
COST 90.80 now the 10 DMA to hold (Bought Friday-great lesson for holding for a swing)
VRTX 2 inside days. Max risk 57.65. Good potential
UNH Caveat Emptor with the upcoming Supreme Court Decision. Back to Condition 2 and must hold 58.00
FDO Now a condition 2. Over 71.36 returns it to a condition 1. Risk today's low
EQIX Back to condition 1. Ideally like to see 170 hold
AOL Has to hold today's low
PPG Condition 4 Inside day. Over 103.55 clears the 10 DMA. Risk then, the 50 DMA
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
Other: TWC Positive Pivots back to unconfirmed bullish TOL Reversal preferred with risk 26.00 COF Over the 10 DMA 53.38 most powerful but positive pivots LNKD Check earnings, but good consolidation that breaks out over 107. Risk 105.50 NXPI If holds the 200 DMA at 20.32 could see move up to the 50 DMA or higher. SPG Unconfirmed bullish now needs to hold 149.76 X like it for a pop over 19.00. Positive Pivots
Shorts:
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
GDX Cannot cross 45.16
HUM Caveat as a decision on health care can impact this. But been on and off list and since short from last week, could be gaining momentum. Cannot cross today's high
STJ cannot cross 38.00
WYNN Cannot cross 103.16
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows N/A
Goodnight!