Evening Watch List for June 26th

Mish Schneider | June 25, 2012

Week began with the wolf not grandmother considering the gap lower and consequential follow through. The 200 DMA back in the S&P 500 midst, Russell 2000 upon it and NASDAQ once again, the best hope that current levels hold as it landed on support levels from 2 weeks ago along with a fairly significant exponential moving average.

S&P 500 (SPY)Unless it crosses 132.60 assume the 200 DMA at 129.79 is next.Subs: Negative Pivots.

Russell 2000 (IWM)On the 200 DMA and not even close to oversold.

Dow (DIA) 125.45 the number to watch before feeling safe on the long side

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Under 61.52 there is a gap to 61.24. Otherwise, over today's high, should test the fast moving average. Low volume reflecting lack of enthusiasm either way.Subs: Pivots negative


GLD One should be negative (the 50 and fast moving averages sloping down are 2 reasons). However, through 154.23 could see more upside

XLF (Financials) There goes my long term weekly moving average hold. Now, it's up to the 200 DMA as best hope.

IBB (Biotechnology) Inside day-under Friday low, if market gets nasty should put the kibosh on its recent run to new highs.

XRT (Retail) Hard to short with the gap lower, but overall, unless it clears57.80, looks lower from here with the 200 DMA 55.50

IYR (Real Estate)Before we throw in the towel, another economic number comes out Tuesday-Case -Shiller Price Index.

USO (US Oil Fund) Not sure I would call this good news, but it is holding the recent lows and over 30.00 could have more short covering

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLT been forming base for last several weeks which means not acting particularly toppy.

Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.

Category 1:(Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

AMZN Like to see 219.65 hold and after 4 days under pivots, clear R1 221.74

COST Narrow range day. Has to hold 90.28 and after 4 days under pivots clear today's high

FDX Now that it has 3 days under pivots, like to see R1 cross at 89.67

Category 2:(Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

ALXN Has to hold today' s low

AOL Has to hold 26.26

TLT 126.00 max risk

Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

EQIX Daily approaching oversold. Like to see today low hold and tighter risk 164.86, the FTP. Then clear R1 167.72

Outperformed market and Good Phase: COG Through 37.00 looks good with positive pivots NFLXhas to hold 66.00 positive pivots AGU Positive pivots, has to hold 83.85 CF Today's low new LULUNow, 64.95 has to clear SPG Like to see it hold 149.60 and clear today's high

Shorts: Choices under 15 RSI are eliminated for position trading. Also sinceultrashorts have positive pivots, can watch for OR reversals.
Slingshots now confirmed:ROST SHW

Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing

RRC Inside day. Cannot cross 58.99

NTAP Cannot cross 30.24

BAX Cannot cross 51.71

CTSH Cannot cross 58.37

Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows

STJ Has to break 37.65