Evening Watch List for June 13th

Mish Schneider | June 12, 2012

The fast moving averages were next up as support and all held. After a lot of buzz concerning the bearish engulfing patterns that developed Monday, the relevance of those patterns matter mainly if they occur at swing highs or lows. Therefore, market remains at a midpoint-in a warning phase, still vulnerable, yet with the longer term uptrend intact. Lots of noise in between.

S&P 500 (SPY)Accumulation Day in volume Subs: Today's video describes the possible inverted head and shoulders with points to watch. Positive Pivots

Russell 2000 (IWM) Back over the 200 DMA which would like to see hold.Subs: Pivots Negative so would require a move back over 76.71 to undo the damage.

Dow (DIA) Inside day.Subs: Pivots Positive

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Subs: Pivots negative. Like to see 62.87 clear then 5/29 high on a closing basis or still vulnerable


GLD Subs: Wedged between the fast and the 50 DMAs-or is that the Fast and the Furious? Positive Pivots

XLF (Financials) I sure would be happy to see a weekly close over 14.30 if 13.80 holds up.Subs: Long today swing starter position

IBB (Biotechnology) Back over the 50 DMA with twin red candles to compete with and clear

SMH (Semiconductors) Pushing up against the 200 DMA

XRT (Retail) Inside day which means follow the way the range breaks up or down

IYR (Real Estate) 60.00 is support. Needs a close over the 50 DMA for any chance of a recovery

XLE (Energy) Inside day.Subs: 63.60 a good place to hold with positive pivots

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Watch for move over 16.12 as good sign for market

Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.

Category 1:(Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

AMZN Has to hold 214.60, clear the pivots 217.99 then R1 219.73

Category 2:(Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: N/A

Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

BIIB Inside day. Based on Category 1 rules, should be long today. Now, can see if gets an OR reversal or since inside day, good risk on OR breakout

YOKU 23.59 good risk. Can look at strength or reversal

TRIP Entry today so now, reversal is preferred

BBBY Condition 3. Risk to 70.60. Can buy strength too

ALXN Returned to condition 1. All-time high 94.90. Max risk 91.60 S1

PPG Inside day. Max risk today's low. Could use S1. Like to see104.92 clear

VVUS Inside day. Has to hold 10 DMA 24.18. Like to see today's high clear

Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

SWI Not oversold. Negative pivots closed above them. Risk to pivots43.54. Then should clear R1 44.42

Confirmed Phase Change Distribution to Warning: KLAC Now needs to clear 47.96 hold 47.04 PX105.55 support CF 164.20 max risk, Must clear 170.21 R1 with negative pivots

Other: SPG Over R1 149.84. Must hold 146.20 FB Inside day-follow the range break either way


Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing

BIDU Cannot cross 120.78

HUM Cannot cross 79.26

SOHU Cannot clear 45.43

WPRT Cannot cross 30.18

LNKD Should not cross 95.53

Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows

COP Cannot clear 54.77

SLB Cannot cross 65.54