The divergence between GLD and the S&P 500continues with possibility of rates having bottomed. The indexes had a low volume rally, but nonetheless, show no signs yet of this move abating other than a continuing lack of real heavy commitment.
S&P 500 (SPY) Traded up to 137.64 with the last swing high from early July at 137.51. Settled below. Some numbers to watch 136.25 first support then 135.50. There remains a gap overhead to fill at 138.99, first real area of resistance. Remember, tops don't happen simply because people call them-there are sound technical signals to look for.
Russell 2000 (IWM) I like 80.00 now as first area to hold up with the overhead resistance at 80.96 still a factor from July 10th high.
Dow (DIA) 127.30 first significant support to watch. 129.41 next closest overhead resistance
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 63.50 support 64.58 Wednesday high first resistance then, 65.25.
ETFs:
GLD It underperformed the market with an inside day, and no huge rally off of the intraday low. Keeping a negative bias and looking to see what happens at 148.50
XLF (Financials) Unless this breaks 14.50, will continue to be friendly and call this action consolidation
IBB (Biotechnology) Since September 2011, this has made a new high every month. That might be the best indication to watch-the month that pattern reverses.
SMH (Semiconductors) A stunning case of taking out the old lows by one tick and turning around screaming all the way.Subs: 31.40 is our 1.5 ATRs-watch the video for instructions
XRT (Retail) Not much to say-held the 50 DMA, bounced-let's keep watching
IYT (Transportation) Needs to clear 92.45 and hold Wednesday's low
IYR (Real Estate) Nothing goes up everyday-so this instead paused with an inside day.
USO (US Oil Fund) Watching 34.00 carefully as a place where this could stop its recent run
OIH (Oil Services) Anyone unfamiliar with phase changes-this one was a beauty as it changed from a bear to recovery phase. Now a bit overbought
XLE (Energy) 69.00 the 200 DMA and significant resistance
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Subs: Love to see 15.00 break in TBT. JNK-Took off some at first profit target and now no loss stop.
Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Many of this week's picks still good or in play. Trying to freshen up the list with new choices that are not overbought or reporting in next few days
Post Earnings: IBM A gap over 192.58 the 200 DMA will be fun to watch
Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: N/A
Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: N/A
Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
BEAM Like to see 62.68 hold. 64.00 recent high 65.48 2011 high.
TROW Reports 7/25. Like to see 62.60 hold. Through 63.00 has room.
BUD Prefer reversal now, but should hold 77.80. All time high 79.65
FDX Can use a tight risk now to 92.20 with a move over 92.80 good sign could continue up.
HCA Reports 7/30. 28.25 now close support with a move over 29.00 encouraging.
LNKD Max risk today's low. Above today's high could see 110.
Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 1-4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:
HSY Not oversold but a condition 4 with negative pivots. If holds 71.49, and takes out 71.92, could see move. Reports 7/26.
WFM Reports 7/25. 2 lows at 92.26. has to first clear 92.90 the FTP then 94.28 to get real interesting
Phase Change: PRU Inside day and positive pivots. Should hold 48.00 BEN Reports 7/31.Doji day and now an inside day. Today's low good risk. Over 114 good. Positive Pivots. DKS Today's low to hold. Positive Pivots. All-time high 51.65 AMZN reports 7/26. Could be interesting if gaps above 218.90 R1. Then can use 217 area for risk. PXReports 7/25. Confirmed bullish and although underperformed, if holds today' slow could has positive pivots with a move over 110 possible. TSCOPossible slingshot bottom corresponding with a touchdown of the 65 weekly MA. F 9.30 now should hold
NFLX (Daytrade only) 3 days under pivots, narrow range and inside day. Over 82.64 is what I would wait for.
Shorts: Only underperformers in a bear phase that did not close above R1
Category 5:Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing
SLW Max risk 26.26 and should break 25.96 the FTP then today's low which lines up with S1
CI Max risk 43.45
Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows N/A
GOOG daytrade only. 584.24 max risk and needs to break 580 then today's low
ADSK 32.62 max risk and has to break today's low
BHP Max risk 63.94. Should break today's low
DVN Like to see it not clear 58.75 the 50 DMA and fail today's low
TCK Cannot clear today's high and should break today's low
Bye for now!