Evening Watch List for September 5th

Mish Schneider | September 4, 2013

Guess what I’m happy to report? No, it’s not that biotechnology continues to rock and roll making new highs yet again (although that is not too shabby considering I have been on top of that group forever!) And it’s not that the Dow closed up nearly $97.00 either. Give up then? Semiconductors! Yes readers, they returned during Wednesday’s session to an unconfirmed bullish phase. And this makes me happy. Not just because we got long today-of course not! I love when a technical chart patterns works!! The channel that goes back on a monthly chart for 13 years has cleared once again. That channel has to remain cleared as we head into the rest of September-a long way off-for now, though, we can use a really tight risk around the channel point giving us a perfect trade setup.

S&P 500 (SPY) Chasing an upward sloping 50 DMA which at some point has to clear Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indices.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Inside day.102.50 is a good area to see clear. 100.00 is now the closest support level to hold

Dow (DIA) Cleared and closed over 149, which I have been calling a game changer. Now, that needs to hold to ring true

Nasdaq (QQQ) Cleared and closed above 76.55 the gap fill from the drop after 8/30. Recent highs are within reach. 74.94 is the 50 DMA

ETFs:

XLF (Financials) “19.78 good point to clear, then we look at the 50 DMA.” Closing price 19.75

SMH (Semiconductors) 37.50 a good point to hold now Subscribers: Long ½ and using the 50 DMA to calculate risk

XRT (Retail) Inside day. Like it better over 79.03

IBB (Biotechnology) New highs!

IYR (Real Estate) Inside day. Subscribers: Long at 62.14 with stop under slingshot low-will have no issues adding over 62.86 Tuesday high

XHB (Homebuilders) 28.90 good point to clear

GLDA bit tough to gauge risk for long or short right now

USO (US Oil Fund) Subscribers: Not quite 2 inside days but still like the range break from last 3 days as a follow the way it goes

OIH (Oil Services) Subscribers: Over 46.00, I’m happy.

XLE (Energy) Subscribers: Ultimately, this move doesn’t mean all that much until it clears 84.00

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Inside day. Subscribers: Will watch for an opening range reversal

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside day

UUP (Dollar Bull) Subscribers: Unconfirmed deterioration of phase to distribution

EWG (Germany) Subscribers: Watch the 50 DMA for possible reentry or over 26.00

Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly

**NOTE: New and Old Subscribers: I do not include on the list 1. Anything with a weekly or daily RSI over 92 2. Anything within 4 days of reporting earnings 3. Anything with a risk over 1 ATR from its current close 4. Anything with only one day under the Floor Trader Pivots (unless specifically noted. 5. Anything with a potential slingshot or brick wall high (new 60 day high, close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range.

Category 1: (Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

GMCR Crossed the 10 DMA making today’s low good risk. Now, has to clear R1 87.70 for move to 91.25 area next

Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A

Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can eitherbuy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)

HAL Over today’s highs looks good to new highs with risk, 48.30

TRIP Inside day. Like that R1 and this week’s high line up with risk 73.50 area

LNC Cleared the 10 DMA and filled gap from August 26th. Now, 43.11 good risk and like on reversal or breakout

KOG 2 inside days. Small stock but if clears recent highs can see 11.00 next

YELP A bit far from risk, but covered it on today’s video-how to play it from here-all about risk-now around 54.00

MCK Inside day. 122.10 now a good risk

HCA Inside day. This one is consolidating with a great risk to under 37.75. Like to see it clear today’s high

URI Inside day improved in condition. Today’s low good risk and over 56.90 sets up for trip to the recent highs 60.00 or higher

TXN Real close to taking out multiyear highs with risk now 38.70

Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A

Phase Change:
KSS
50.98 now risk point with a move over 52.18 a phase change
X Inside day and confirmed phase change to recovery. The move would be to hold for a possible run to the 200 DMA and beyond
WAG confirmed phase change to bullish. 49.00 now closest risk point

Shorts:

Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing

SPG Inside day. Over 145.80 would not be short, but if the homebuilders fail more, this is good to look at

AMT Inside day Short ½ position with a swing risk over 70.50. Has to break 67.89 to negate a weak but in place brick wall bottom

EQIX Inside day. Risk 177.96 and S1 and today’s low line up

SPN Inside day. Has to break 24.43 and not clear the 200 DMA

IBM Of course I wish I were still short from or entry at 196! Inside day. Still looks weak with risk 184.20 and target 170 not crazy

V 177.58 good risk point with target should 170 break, 168 next support

Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots.. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows

JOY Inside day. 50.21 max risk and if breaks S1 can resume downtrend with 48.00last support until 40.00

Bye For Now,