Evening Watch List for March 7th

Mish Schneider | March 6, 2014

Another low volume day that continues to support the possibility of a blow off top that occurred on Tuesday in the small caps, Russell 2000. Why? A wee bit of a red close there, the DIA (Dow) that could not confirm it has the power to get through 2014 highs (although it did take out Wednesday’s high) and nothing much more than a quiet digestion day in SPY and NASDAQ.

Stay tuned though-we shall know soon enough! The start of something bigger or a rush to the exits.

Jobs report of course could be a catalyst along with the Ukraine-or for us in the technical bubble, a gap lower in all indices and the confirm, especially in IWM.

What fun!

S&P 500 (SPY) The 188 area is an important area to defend. If it breaks 186.75 is the next support level. Subscribers:Positive pivots in all except QQQ

Russell 2000 (IWM) Broke out of the inside day and churned sideways afterwards. 120.58 is the next resistance level.

Dow (DIA) Broke out of the inside day but was not able to clear the resistance from January.

Nasdaq (QQQ) Has been the leader but is looking tired.

XLF (Financials) Very strong. Cleared January highs. Watch those levels for support.

SMH (Semiconductors) Has been strong but is near overbought conditions.

IYT (Transportation) Heading into resistance at 135.93- 1/23 high

IBB (Biotechnology) Sold off today but, is holding a support level. Watch for today’s low to hold.

XRT (Retail) Digesting the recent move up.

IYR (Real Estate) Digesting the move up. It looks like it may re-test the 10 DMA.

XHB (Homebuilders) Beginning to form a pennant formation. Watch the 2014 high (34.27) to clear.

GLD Needs to clear the island top at 130.59.

USO (US Oil Fund) Has an island top-the 200 DMA next test.

OIH (Oil Services) Cleared resistance at the 49 area. Looks poised for a move up.

XLE (Energy) Has to clear 88.48 once and for all

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Inside day. Needs to clear 70.42

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Gapped higher but, probably best to wait for the jobs report at this point.

UUP (Dollar Bull) watch 21.33 for support.

EEM (Emerging Markets) Subscribers: Confirmed recovery phase but is heading into potential resistnace at the 200 DMA- 40.31.

KRE (Regional Banks) Heading into resistance.

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Looks great!

CORN (Corn) Subscribers: 34.51 is the 200 DMA

BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: Great move today and cleared recent highs

JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Resting with an inside day.

SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: Pausing after the nice move yesterday.

Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly

Category 1: (Aloha) N/A

Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A

Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)

CNQ Watch for a reversal or breakout over 37.64. Needs to hold the 10 DMA.

WLP If holds 90.00 could see more upside especially if clears 92.00

FDX 137.65 needs to clear. Looks poised for an explosive move over that level. Needs to hold the 50 DMA.

Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A

Phase Change:
GDX
Long a second time around with now, a move over 27.00 looking good to around 29-30.00
JBLU
Prefer an ORR against the 10 DMA.
A
Moved into an unconfirmed bullish phase today. Watch for a breakout or reversal against the 50 DMA.
IBM
Closed above the 200 DMA to move this into an unconfirmed Accumulation Phase.
JCP 8.24 needs to hold. Watch for a breakout or reversal against that level.
SODA has to clear 41.71 for a continued move up.

GE Moved into an unconfirmed bull phase. Watch for a breakout of reversal over the 50 DMA. The 50 DMA needs to hold.

OI Moved into an unconfirmed bullish phase today. Watch for a reversal or breakout against the 50 DMA.

Shorts:

Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing

APA weak and near the lows

Bye For Now!