Evening Watch List for July 11th

Mish Schneider | July 10, 2013

Whether the FED indecision is the culprit or not, the session on Wednesday seemed like a game of Jacks-also known as Knucklebones. The winner (profitable trader) is the first player to successfully complete a prescribed series of throws (trades), which, while of the same character, differ widely in detail. Such is the mix of the market right now. Crude Oil rose after waning inventories.Biotechnology is back to the darling sector; Semiconductors managed a close back over the 50 DMA. Rates, gold rose as the US dollar dropped. Transportation fell and Real Estate closed flat.

S&P 500 (SPY)166 next hurdle. Support to hold 163.00.

Russell 2000 (IWM) I kept close eyes here as the threat of this making a new all-time high then failing seemed highly probable until the end of day push back to the highs. Small-caps remain supreme for now

Dow (DIA) )Over 153.36 strong. 150.75 key support

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 72.50 key support and like to see 73.72 clear for more strength-only note the overbought near-term relative strength indicators

ETFs:

XLF (Financials)20.35 the 2013 high and the 50 DMA key to hold

SMH (Semiconductors) Unconfirmed phase change to bullish therefore needs a second day above the 50 DMA to confirm Subscribers: Own about 2/3 normal position and will happily add over 38.29

XRT (Retail) New all-time high yet again and overbought

IYT (Transportation) Inside day making 112.73 key support

IBB (Biotechnology) Cleared a key level of resistance with 186.98 the 2013 high in its midst

IYR (Real Estate)Inside day with67.40 the 200 DMA to clear

XHB (Homebuilders) the 50 DMA overhead

GLD120 now key support

OIH (Oil Services)44.80 support and still has the 2013 high above to clear

XLE (Energy) Resistance at 82.00

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Sure looks like the sentiment is towards tapering with 76.00 support

UUP (Dollar Bull) Subscribers: Still in ½ position as long as the 10 DMA holds

EWG (Germany) Subscribers: Long at 24.70 and like to see the 200 DMA hold

Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly.

Category 1:
(Aloha) Positive Phase, Condition 1, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous Day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

CIEN If 19.64 holds, and it can clear first the pivots then R1, today’s high, over the 80 monthly and a contender for higher prices

GCI Reports July 22nd. We are already long in the portfolio, but if this can hold 25.42 the 10 DMA and take out R1, could see another push ahead of earnings

GME Has to hold 42.08 the 10 DMA and then clear the pivots and today’s high. 46 reasonable target

MGM 2 day correction and improved in condition. 15.02 good risk point and has to clear the pivots then today’s high to see 16.50 or higher

Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A

Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means caneither buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)

KRFT Cleared 56.00 and now needs to hold 55.50. Next hurdle 56.74 then could see 58.00

EQR Provided today's low holds, if this can clear R1 it is worth another shot. Target 60 to 63.

Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A

Phase Change:

BIIB Sitting on the 50 DMA with 216.30 a good risk (10 DMA) R1 clears today’s high and could see 247
AAPL July 23rd
Not a phase change, but 417.72 S1 a good risk. The 50 DMA reasonable
TPX Reports July 31st Opening Range Reversal better now to control risk to the 50 DMA
LEN Brick wall bottom-still in play. Like to see 34.05 hold and clear today’s high and the 10 DMA
KBH 18.11 the monthly- the risk parameters and over today’s high like for swing
RCL Prefer an opening range reversal with risk to the 200 DMA since the 50 DMA so close as resistance

Shorts:

Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing

CTRX 47.90 resistance Under 47 or so should see 43.00 area

FCX Reports July 18th Has to break S1 and stay under 28.00

Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day’s lows

POT Short half a position. Should not clear 39.60. Has to break today's low.

MOS Risk today's high, needs to break S1.

Bye for Now!