Evening Watch List for January 31st

Mish Schneider | January 30, 2014

Social Media lead the way on Thursday with a stunning move (13.40% higher) in Facebook. Thus, NASDAQreturned to an unconfirmed bullish phase, yet remains the only one that did thus far of the four indices.

The small caps or Russell 2000s did briefly visit the 50 DMA and bullish phase but could not close above it. Therefore, we end the week and month mixed. If NASDAQ fails to confirm the bullish phase, good chance this bounce and a dead cat will have something in common.

If NASDAQ holds and the small caps catch up ending the week back in a bullish phase, perhaps the market begins February and the Chinese New Year in better shape.

Given the either or situation (and really, that tenuous right here), stay calm and neutral until we see how January concludes. One more day of patience will yield clarity for possibly the next several months.

S&P 500 (SPY) Study volume patterns, phase changes and slope of major moving averages and clearly this makes the case for a rally to sell into. Again, inconclusive, but stay frosty if long Subscribers: Positive pivots in all

Russell 2000 (IWM) 113.25 is the place to close above or really, vulnerable here as well

Dow (DIA) Lukewarm rally, which considering this was the first one to show fatigue, also reason for caution

Nasdaq (QQQ) Closed above the 50 DMA but in the aftermarket trading around it with the GOOG and AMZN earnings. Under Thursday lows take that as another sign of caution.

XLF (Financials) Ok it bounced, but the daily chart beginning to look like a bear flag

SMH (Semiconductors) I always want to love semis and still do, but if the market corrects, will wait for a move to 40.00 before reentering long

IYT (Transportation) Back to an unconfirmed bullish phase

IBB (Biotechnology) Great day here, but not surprising-pharma having a party-which is good if they keep coming up with good medicine but not enough to hold the market up

XRT (Retail) Inside day under the 200 DMA

IYR (Real Estate) Continues to build a base at these levels

XHB (Homebuilders) Not great looking right here

GLD Looks good then looks worse but still over the 50 DMA

USO (US Oil Fund) Gapped up and held the small gap. Now, it’s all about holding the 50 and clearing the 200 DMA

OIH (Oil Services) Could be the rally to short if rolls over Friday Subscribers: Watch DUG the ultrashort

XLE (Energy) Holding the 200 DMA for now

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs Inside day under the 200 DMA

UUP (Dollar Bull) Unconfirmed phase change back to recovery

CAF (China “A” Shared Fund) Watch here since cleared the 200 DMA again

CORN (Corn) Subscribers: One more push will clear the 50 DMA

BAL (Cotton) Subscribers: confirmed an accumulation phase

JO (Coffee) Subscribers: Continuation up

SGG (Sugar) Subscribers: 50.60 another point to clear to get me interested

Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly

**NOTE: New and Old Subscribers:
I do not include on the list 1. Anything with a weekly or daily RSI over 92 2. Anything within 4 days of reporting earnings 3. Anything with a risk over 1 ATR from its current close4. Anything with only one day under the Floor Trader Pivots (unless specifically noted. 5. Anything with a potential slingshot or brick wall high (new 60 day high, close in the bottom 25% of the intraday range.

Category 1: (Aloha)N/A

Category 2: (Pipeline) Positive Phase, Condition 2-3, 2 days under the FTPs, Risk to Previous day low, Can buy ½ over FTP and ½ over R1, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

BHI R1 has to clear but still like this one too

Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)

MTW Reported and could gap to new highs if clear 26.01 tomorrow with lots of room

RIO February 13th reports. Inside day on the 50 DMA with a move over 54.07 good with 52.91 risk for a hybrid swing

TXT Already reported. We have a swing position on but if the market fails, we will be tighter with stops. Don’t want to see this end the week failing 35.92. However, over today’s high will be very encouraging

TSLA Reports February 19th-Look for an opening range reversal

CCUR Waited for this to clear 8.50, now if it does like the buy and hold

TEL Over 58.00, still looks good but has to hold today’s lows

Category 4: (Rip Tide) N/A

Phase Change:
KBH DOJI day over the 200 DMA which means has to hold 18.66 now to continue
CREE Reported. 62.05 if defended, this could still run up especially over 62.85

Shorts:

Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing

TCK February 13th Reports. 24.70 resistance if this cannot hold 24.00

JOY Under 52.12 breaks recent lows and could drop to 50.00 or lower. Reports February 26th

COST Under 111.92 could start a new leg down

EXPE Reports February 6th. Daytrade only. Inside day. Confirmed warning phase. 66.00 good risk

Bye For Now!