Evening Watch List for 4/9/2013

Mish Schneider | April 8, 2013

Oh happy day if you are bullish, which certainly makes sense even given last week's decline as both the S&P 500 and the Dow never violated the bullish phases. And now, the Russell 2000 cleared the 50 DMA reestablishing the bull phase (although it needs another day to confirm), same with NASDAQ. The flight to bonds ended today with the TLTs rejecting the 200 DMA and the TBTs (short bonds) confirming what we refer to as a slingshot low (rough referral to David slaying Goliath.) What's next? For one, the official kickoff of earnings season. Secondly, market needs another day for IWM and QQQ to confirm the move is real and finally, the financials-they (XLF) need to take out the 2013 high (18.48).

I rarely talk about how our equity picks do relative to the market. But, we consistently outperform every day, not to mention, our short picks this year have well underperformed. Here are today's stats:

SPY up.7% MBI up 7.1% TOL 2.9% JPM 1.4% LTD 1.5% EQT 2.7% AIG 3.68% AOL 1.35% FSLR 2.27% MUR 1.4% CREE JCI and SLB only up .8%-out of 18 long picks, 12 or 67% outperformed today. 14 out of 18 closed green. Plus, the one short we have (had- now gone on the close-EW-down .02%)

S&P 500 (SPY) Cleared the fast moving average and now has to hold 155 low balling it and 155.90 closer and tighter Subscribers: Positive pivots in all indexes

Russell 2000 (IWM) Over the 50 DMA 91.90. Now, the area to hold Subscribers: 93.00 next hurdle

Dow (DIA) Cleared the fast moving average. Real close to the highs once again

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Cleared the 50 DMA (67.90) and now, 68.50 a hurdle to clear

ETFs:

GLD Inside day to Friday's green candle which means a good one to follow the range break

XLF (Financials) Needs to take out the 2013 high (18.48).

IBB (Biotechnology) Underperformed but still in good shape

SMH (Semiconductors) Held 34.00, now looking at 35.00 and the day this gets over 36.17-look out above! Subscribers: Did not add at 34.40 since happened late in day. But, an opening range reversal would be good to watch for now

XRT (Retail) Looking like those double tops at 70.81 will be history.

IYT (Transportation) Confirmed phase change to bullish

IYR (Real Estate) New highs the last 3 trading days. Now extended, but sure helped us get long other instruments with more confidence

USO (US Oil Fund) Confirmed distribution phase but trying to test the 200 DMA

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Of the 3 possibilities: 1. Gravestone Doji 2. A slingshot low 3. An island bottom in the works, looks like #1 not a concern, #2 is confirmed and jury out on #3.

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Unconfirmed return to the bullish phase needs to confirm Subscribers: Got 1.5 ATRs-first profit target

XHB (Homebuilders) Unconfirmed return to the bullish phase needs to confirm

SGG (Sugar ETF) Subscribers: 63.50 is the place I am watching to clear but in futures, its 18.22 the 200 weekly moving average

Longs: On categories: Gap higher days we go to all categories and choose ones with lowest risk that break the opening range. On weaker days, we look at Category 3, especially if the picks hold S1, previous day lows or a major moving average and have a good risk on the reversal. The difference between Category 1 and 2 is the stock condition-a Condition 1 is strongest stock and more likely to make a parabolic move.
Note: Anything that is on this list is a candidate for a swing trade-(of course market condition is a factor) -use the max risk mentioned along with an opening range stop using fudge factor and time confirms. I suggest you decide on 1 or 2 that have a risk you like and then position size accordingly
Category 1: (Aloha) Category 2: (Pipeline) N/A

Category 3: (Double Up) Positive Phase, Condition 1 through 4, Positive Pivots which means can either buy a opening range breakout or candidate for Opening Range Reversal, with Risk S1 or previous day low, whichever is lower unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry: (Opening range reversals are good on anything above S1)

MUR Now has to clear 64.00 to keep going

TIF Has to clear R1 now and hold today's low

GNC Like on reversal or strength against today's low

HOT Phase change to unconfirmed bullish and looks like if market holds, has shot for new multi-year highs

TROW Unconfirmed phase change to bullish and if financials stay firm potential to clear 76.00 and keep going

LIFE Inside day. Has to hold today's low and get through 66.00

CREE At this point, needs to clear R1 and hold 50.00

EQT A bit extended now-but wow! New highs today for 2013.

BAC 12.00 should old and if good, has lots of room since over the 200 weekly moving average

SPLK Need a clearance of 40.00 on a closing basis, to keep this going. Like this against 39.34 on weakness or above today's high on strength

Category 4: (Rip Tide) Oversold (2 or more days under FTP), Condition 4, Needs to clear R1, Risk previous day low unless noted differently, Target- Day to at least 3 ATRs from entry:

UPS Has to clear R1 and today's high

Phase Change: ALXN 96.96 is max risk and over today's high clears the 200 DMA TOL Unconfirmed weak warning pause, so watch for more strength BEAM Inside day with the 200 DMA 59.86 max risk, 60.50 closer risk should this get an OR breakout AAPL tested the 03/04 low on Friday and today, closed in line with the market. 424.50 was afternoon support. Watch this for a breakout EL Unconfirmed phase change to bullish-like reversal or strength as long as the 50 DMA holds

Shorts:

Category 5: Titanic-Bear Phase, Negative pivots, not oversold, Risk R1 or previous day high. Target: Day to swing

MOS although it is sitting on the 80 monthly and 200 weekly moving averages , the daily chart is getting heavy. Max risk today's high.

Category 6: White Cap-Having a 2-3 Day correction over the pivots. In a Negative Phase, Positive Pivots. Can sell an Opening Range High Failure if happens below R1 or previous day high whatever is higher and/or weakness if breaks S1 and prior day's lows

NOV Doji day. Has to break S1 and max risk today's high

GES 5 closes above pivots, but as long as it does not clear today's highs and breaks today's low, could see renewed selling

Bye for Now!