Evening Watch List for Dec. 6th 2011

Mish Schneider | December 5, 2011

But wait...bank intervention followed by a review for a downgrade in Europe? New intraday highs followed by new intraday lows. Feeling your strings pulled? S & P 500 dropped her handkerchief in front of the 200 DMA; then when traders bent down to pick it up, she bailed.  But, SPY volume was better than Friday's thereby managing an accumulation day.

SPY: 4-day trendline on the 30 minute chart breaks under today's low. Then can see 123.25. Otherwise, daily RSI approaching overbought but not there yet, with the 200 DMA at 126.65, which it needs to close above. Subs-positive pivots at 126.28 S1 125.38

QQQ: Accumulation day in volume.  4-day trendline on the 30 minute chart breaks under today's low. But dips right now, look like buy opportunities. Subs-Pivots at 57.25 S1 85.87

IWM: Under 74.00 I wouldn't say the party is over, but more than likely more correction follows. At least it put in its 3rd accumulation day in volume in 2 weeks. The 200 DMA is in line with the highs from the end of October's swing high. Only issue in buying strength is the overbought situation on the daily that accompanies the rallies now.

ETFs:

GLD Goodbye gap. But, the 50 DMA is beneath with now an upward slope keeping this in a bull phase with the test of 167, the area where it popped from.

SLV (Silver) Good follow through on the short side after Friday's negative action. Subs-Look for an OR high failure provided it does not break over 31.76.

XRT (Retail) Overbought on daily RSI, not weekly or monthly. A correction would be a relief.

SMH* (Semiconductors) Closed over the weekly moving average but not the 200 DMA. Plus had a doji day. Looks good over 31.30. Subs S1 30.77 an area to hold

XLF (Financials) Unless this gaps under 12.90, see dips as buy opportunities with next overhead resistance at 13.48

XLE (Energy) Even more sideways action off the 200 DMA. But also 3 days of higher intraday highs then closing on the intraday lows. Can't argue with a close over the 200 DMA, but under 70.55, a correction to 69.00 not so bad either.

IBB (Biotechnology) Last 2 trading session, two tops at 103.36 and 103.38. A correction to 99.50 support is not out of the question. Then we will see what this leading group is made out of.

Longs: Unless I specify Negative pivot stack, please note that PFTPs=Positive Floor Trader Pivots. If those picks with PFTPs hold S1, they are Opening Range Reversal candidates. To limit choices, I am not putting anything on the list with an RSI over 80 on the daily or weekly or if the weekly Bollinger band is negatively sloped (1 exception). If a pick was on last night's watch and it is still good, will list on honorable mention. To see the type of trade, please refer back to the appropriate evening watch.

RRC 3 days under the FTPs at 70.82 with risk to the 4 day low made today at 69.70 if clears pivots. Ideally should clear R1 and today's high 72.13 as well. If does, see move to 76-77.00 next with more possible. Day to Swing

ONXX Huge move last Monday, then spent the week consolidating at the top ½ of that bar. Pivots are negative so must clear R1 44.45 with risk to low of today, 43.43. Then, if resumes rally, has to clear 46.00 to see 60.00. Day to Swing

CAT 2 inside days as it hugs the 200 DMA. The 1 exception to the negatively sloped weekly Bollinger band considering the pause here. PFTPs at 97.05 and S1 96.14 max risk since if that breaks could see 94.00 quickly. On the flip side, if clears 98.00 could see 103 quickly then 106. Day to swing

HANS Putting on list since the daily and weekly RSI is not overbought yet the monthly is. That could still mean that this month it stages a rally from here. PFTPs at 93.75 with S1 risk 92.77. Like 99-101 as a target. Day to Short-term Swing

SPG Like so many charts, has a fairly tight 4-day trading range with negative pivots at 123.14 and S1, the risk at 121.85. Ideally should take out today's high to stay strong then can see a move to 130.50 then 134.Day to Short-term Swing

Honorable Mention: 
DKS PFTPS at 39.96 LOD 39.56. USB Positive Pivots 25.99 S1 25.69. SHW* PFTPS 85.89 S1 84.88. JAZZ PFTPS 40.20 S1 39.57. PXD PFTPS 93.78 S1 92.19) HCP* (Must clear R1 38.17)WFM Positive Pivots 69.20 LOD 68.67. COG (Has to clear 89.20) PAY (Narrowest Range 10 Days PFTPs 44.13)

Shorts:

WYNN Original swing short at 132.00 but now with negative pivots at 118.18 could still see at least another test of recent lows at 110 and perhaps107 then 103. R1 120.34 which should not clear. Day to Short-term Swing

EW Negative pivots at 65.51 with R1 66.07. Inside day so needs to break today's low then could see 61.60 recent low then 50.00 Day to Short-term Swing

Honorable Mention: Must Break S1 WHR* (49.24) FOSL (87.56) BAX (50.99) AMZN (193.63)CREE (24.55) OR High Failure MOS (R1 52.32) IDCC (R1 43.99)

Goodnight!