Evening Watch List for August 22nd, 2011

Mish Schneider | August 21, 2011

SPY All eyes will be on 110.27 the week ending 8/12's low tick. And it seems pretty safe to say we will get there. We are officially oversold on the weekly chart, but not the daily. Saw some tweets on Friday's inverse hammer candle. True, but unless it gaps higher-like way higher-over 116.65-Thursday's high, not putting much credence into that. Nothing goes down forever and we know rallies in bear markets can be vicious, but as of yet, see no signs of a blow off dump. Volume is one key indication as in "need it big" on the upside.  Subs-will watch for an OR high failure near 115 if gets there.

DIA  200 weekly moving average at 107.04. Oversold on weekly, not daily. Over 111.28 would be only reason to stop selling rallies.

QQQ Still lots of room to the 200 weekly moving average below. 49.93 the low from the week ending 8/12. Not even remotely interesting for a buy unless it gets back over 52.40.

IWM Broke and closed under the 200 weekly moving average at 65.56. Oversold on the weekly chart, not the daily. 63.76 recent low-still a bit away.  Subs-Only one I would look to see if it can open and hold above the FTP at 65.85 since it does correspond with the 200 weekly moving average. But would not risk more than 64.99 if that happens.

ETFs:

GLD See no signs yet of a top. Most recent long entry was at 170.75. Subs-stops on the older longs under 177 using a chandelier exit from Friday's high. Or under S1 for newer longs.

SLV Friday saw the silver lining. Made its move closing the highest since April. 45-46 next target. 41.00 should now hold.

The ultrashorts SKF FAZ SDS TWM QID -buying dips and Opening Range reversals the way to go.

EWZ Slightly negative pivots and not oversold on the daily chart. If opens under 60.80 would look to short on a 5 minute OR breakdown. If opens above, unless it takes out 61.48 would look to short an OR high failure

IYR Negative Pivots coming in at 53.44. Unless it crosses over 54.50, would look to sell rallies. The 200 weekly moving average is 51.06.

USO** A couple of oil stocks did well on Friday-COP for one with a big after market rally over the Friday's high 64.94. The ETF is good to watch since closed higher on Friday and although the pivots are negative, a hold of 32.04 and over 32.62, R1 could see a bounce to the gap fill at 33.90. Otherwise, if opens lower could look to short against the FTP and R1

TLT Inside day and low volume. Under 110.23 could see some more selling. Would take that more as a relief of overbought conditions rather than a sign the market can have a sustainable rally for now.

UUP Possible double bottom at 20.84. A move over 21.25 will confirm.

Longs: I am narrowing down the picks after a quick survey on twitter found the majority of you happier with less to focus on right now. The plans I wrote about last week worked out amazingly well. Issue for many and even for myself, was deciding what to focus on each day. Suggestion is to keep track of theindexes and the ETFs I mentioned above. Otherwise, giving you top 4 longs and 4 shorts and a list of honorable mentions. Hope this helps.

ABT If holds 48.95 can look at this as a long. Inside day on Friday. Has to cross R1 49.60 which also crosses the 200 DMA once again. 51.40 is resistance. Day to mini

CF** Positive pivots and a Condition 1 with 2 days under the pivots-only one with this setup. Has to open and hold above 165.47 with a risk to 164.32 the last hour low for a daytrade. For miniswing would be under the 10 DMA 160.86. Through Friday's high 170.44, could see 172.92 all time high and beyond.Day to swing

ED**Over R1 54.81 takes out Friday's high. Needs to clear 55.21 to keep going with measured move to 57.00 Day to mini

CVI Held the 70 EMA and under the 50 DMA with positive pivots at 24.73. The 50 DMA is 24.75 so good number to watch. Then daytraders can risk to last hour low 24.32 and miniswing traders to 23.32.Day to swing

Hon Mentions BIDU (if continues to hold the 200 DMA) NTAP (if holds 35.87 area can fill gap to 39.20) OVTI (above 25.00) DLTR (over 66.35)

Old Nuggets oversold AAPL JAZZ QCOR MA CMG (ALL must cross R1 to reverse)

Shorts: See ETFs mentioned above

SCCO Provided it stays beneath the 200 weekly moving average at 30.64, could see return to last week's low 27.29 and perhaps a move to 25.50. Negative pivots at 30.03 which I would like to see it stay under.Day to mini

VRX As long as it stays under 40.32. Negative pivots at 39.27. A break of that and can sell weakness. Otherwise, see an OR high failure against the key reference points. Day to mini

SBUX Would not short above 36.15. Still above the 50 weekly moving average. Negative pivots so if breaks 35.21, can short to see if 33.70 then breaks. Next support at 31.20 area. Day to swing

PCP Slightly positive pivots so have to sell failure of 138.50 S1. Under the 200 DMA and 50 weekly moving average now. A break of 136 and could see 130.00 Day to mini

Hon Mention MOS under 62.25 Also, the older Nuggets mentioned above on OR high failuresagainst R1 if can't get through

Have a great Sunday!