Evening Watch List for August 19th, 2011

Mish Schneider | August 18, 2011

SPY Broke everything, the adaptive moving average, the 200 weekly moving average and what I was warning about-distribution volume patterns and Death Crosses came home to roost in a big way. Plus, now 7 Distribution days in volume after today. Since tomorrow ends the week, will look for where it closes-can it close above the 200 weekly moving average at 115.52? If so, will there be an Accumulation day in volume? Now waiting to see if we can recover from this blowout at all and how convincing the recovery is re the 200 weekly moving average and volume. Otherwise, see more downside.

DIA Through 111.90 area maybe. Otherwise still has a way to get to its 200 weekly moving average at 107.05.

QQQ This was a big clue yesterday since it closed under the adaptive moving average and had negative pivots. Perhaps through today's high it can fill the gap to 53.00. But, there is lots of room to the 200 weekly moving average below. And since it is only approaching oversold could go down much further.  Will be looking for volume patterns to hint at a reversal, that is either a huge distribution day with a spike lower or a big accumulation day that closes above the gap fill.

IWM Came real close to the 200 weekly moving average at 65.56. Only index that is truly oversold on the weekly chart. Therefore, similar to SPY, will watch to see if it can close above the weekly moving average and if so, how the volume pattern looks.

ETFs:

GLD Can I get a PARABOLIC? If long, use S1 for an exit, otherwise, trail stops with chandelier exits for at least partial profit.

SLV A bit lackluster but still holding on. Raising stops on the long position, now under today's low.

IYR Only ETF of the sectors and groups worth writing about. Holding the adaptive moving average still. Not in a death cross. Best shot to lead or catch up to its weaker cousins and dump since not close to oversold. Over today's high has gap to fill at 56.00. Above that perhaps some glimmer of hope.

TLT Another one been writing about since the Fed decided to keep rates down. By the way, imagine how much lower we might be if they didn't do that? Like GLD, if long, use the same exit strategies.

UUP Possible double bottom at 20.84 with a gap higher today.

Longs: I found 12 stocks to recommend but for management sake, will write only about the top 7 and list the other 5.

KCI Still in a condition 1 and holding the 10 DMA at 64.87. Over R1 corresponds with today's high at 66.57. Initial resistance at gap low 67.65 but has potential if market can recover. Day to mini

AAPL The only leader that is holding the 50 DMA and not close to last week's low. 359.45 is the 50 DMA, and today's high is just over R1 372.65 and the 10 DMA with a gap to fill at 377.30 area. Day to swing

LO Had a huge move yesterday followed by an inside day. Positive pivots at 107.26 which means OR reversal ok. Would only risk to today's low 105.98. Through today's high108.29 could go to 113 level.Day to swing

HANS One of my favorite charts. Over 81.51 R1 takes out the last 4 days of price activity. If good should hold around the 80.00 level. All time high 84.00 Day to swing.

SUG The 10 DMA is at 41.23 and the risk for a swing trade. Over R1 42.33 clears today's high. All time high 44.65. Day to swing

BIDU Bottom picker's special but with reason. Held the 200 DMA at 126.23. Slope on 50 DMA still positive.  Weekly chart intact and not close to the February swing low. R1 132.64 with today's high133.37. Could see run to 140 for a day or miniswing. Swing traders can look at options with the 200 DMA as a risk. Day to swing

CVI 2 weeks ago this was on all time highs. Has to clear the 50 DMA at 24.68 and R1 at 25.12. Risk is the 70 EMA at 23.80 for mini and today's low for swing. All time high 28.36 Day to swing

Mentions: SINA (over the 200 DMA) CF (over today's hi) ORLY (Must clear the 50 DMA at 61.84)IDCC (inside day must clear today's hi) SLW (Held the 10 DMA and must clear the 200 DMA 36.98)

Shorts: The indexes are still a big focus. Will be watching for OR high failures. Please review today's video for shorting strategies.

SCCO Provided it stays beneath the 200 weekly moving average at 30.64, could see return to last week's low 27.29 and perhaps a move to 25.50. Day to mini

SLB Sell on strength against the 10 DMA 77.41 or on weakness. The FTP is at 75.08 first resistance. Under 72.80 might have some support at 71.56 the 200 weekly moving average, but can drop further to 68.20 level. Day to swing

PCLN I shorted this last week at 506 and didn't stick with it. I even priced the puts which were thin and rich. Now, broke the 200 DMA at 472.02 and close to breaking the 50 weekly moving average at 452.80. It is a bit oversold so ideally look for an OR high failure. Day to mini

SMH Started writing about the weakness under 33.00. Now look to see on strength or an OR high failure. If it breaks the 200 weekly moving average at 27.37, could see a move down to the 24 area. Day to swing

IYT This did break the 200 weekly moving average at 78.03. Another to look for an OR high failure. Next support 70.00 Day to swing.

Goodnight!