Evening Watch for Jan. 5th 2012

Mish Schneider | January 4, 2012

Classic digestion day in NASDQ and S & P 500 with a confirmed phase change in SPY to Accumulation yet unimpressive volume. QQQ looks better since confirmed a bullish phase with a bullish candle and held the breakaway gap-albeit on low volume.

SPY: Subs-Negative pivots but with healthy digestion. Over 128.10 can't argue and under 126.00 don't fight it.

QQQ: Over 57.20 could get real fun.

IWM: DOJI in this one and continues as the weak link. But, back over today's high and it's got some catching up to do.


GLD As soon as I see the rollover, will jump back into the short side. Only reason to change my mind, if clears the 200 DMA.

XRT (Retail) Sitting on the 50 DMA like a child on a swing.

XLF (Financials) Let's just say that if the market was going to get nasty, this would have done a whole lot worse.. Subs-Over R1 13.38, will seriously consider getting long.

IYT (Transportation) Confirmed phase change and similar to SPY-on the 200 DMA but filled the gap from yesterday, which knocks some wind out of the sails.

IYR (Real Estate) Going to call this a failure from the 200 DMA for now.  But, 55.00, pretty darn important.

IBB (Biotechnology) Can call this a failure at the top of the channel-but typically I wait 2 days to make such claims. Subs-Back over today's high would be worth a follow. Otherwise, would stay out if its way

SMH (Semiconductors) Still wildcardish. Through 31.50 would impress. 30.25 next key area to hold with a break of the last swing low 28.69 trouble.

OIH (Oil Service) Approaching overbought before it even gets to the 50 DMA. The last 2 days formation makes this worth watching. Under the lows especially.

Longs: Continue to focus on the ETFs and Indexes. If any of you have questions about positions or sizing, please tweet me at @mmmprem.

EL good risk to 111.90. It also has 3 days under the pivots. Especially if it can clear 114, potential on weekly chart to 120, so watching how it opens and setups. Day to Short-term Swing

ONXX DOJI and inside day with very clear risk to 42.22 with fudge since no reason to stick around longer. Negative Pivots must clear 42.87 first then today's high 43.40. The 2011 high 46.07. A good first target. Day to Short-term Swing

C Closed right on the 50 DMA with an inside day and positive pivots at 28.06. Good one to watch especially if XLF clear 13.38. Risk could be to today's low and could see 31.60 on upside next resistance.Day to Mini

CVX (Narrow Range 35) and inside day. On 12/12/11's Eve Watch I wrote "ideally must clear 104.43 to see 110-recent highs and good resistance for now." It's there. Question is now if it can close the week over 109.66 (highest closing price on a weekly basis), and clear 110, how far up? 120.00 reasonable before it gets way overbought. Day to Short-term Swing

Honorable Mention: Must Now Clear High or R1: WDC PRU (52.09) UPS (74.37) JBHT (45.63)JNJ (66.00) EXPE (29.66) Positive Pivots OR Reversal Candidates: HOG BIIB* (Doji and inside day)


UA Negative Pivots at 72.50. Want to see this break S1 71.11 then could see 69.69, 12/21 low before next support 67.00. Day to Mini

AMZN Neutral Pivots at 178.02 and cannot clear 180.50. Ultimately needs to break 175.55 again to get ugly, but watch for the low risk entry against the pivots. Day to Short-Term Swing

Honorable Mention: HLF (Had an OR Reversal and failed. Needs to fail 52.05 then could see 46.50 next) CRM (Watch for OR High Failure only) RRC (has not broken the 200 DMA but Negative pivots at 61.01. The 200 DMA is 60.52.) GMCR (Short for swing and now want to see it break 45.00 to see 34.00) BIDU (Must break 120)