Evening Watch for Feb. 3rd 2012

Mish Schneider | February 2, 2012

No seriously, last February 2nd was an inside day in S&P 500 and so was today?? I mentioned the Groundhog Day theory more in jest last night but with history repeating itself so handily; perhaps it's worth rewriting what ensued in the following days last year.  After the 02/02/11 inside day, there was another 12 days of steady upside (a couple of bumps in between) before the first major selloff of 2011. If history continues to serve well, see each dip as a buy opportunity until it gets ridiculously overbought or it gets a huge distribution day in volume.

S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day (only index) Needs to clear last week's high 133.40. But unless it breaks 131.80 now, that may not mean much. Subs-Best shot for more upside out of the 3 indexes.

Russells 2000 (IWM) The longer it sits now at these levels, the easier it will be to see more upside since now the weekly chart is overbought.

NASDQ (QQQ) Overbought now on the weekly and daily Relative Strength Indexes. A close under 60.20 will be disconcerting.


GLD Ok, from dull to the strong, silent type. 175-176 a good target.

XLF (Financials) 14.18 support, 14.65 next target.

XRT (Retail) 56.55 has to clear to get his group exciting again

IBB (Biotechnology) Been recommending this sector since it cleared 106.50. In 2011 it stopped at 110 several times before turning. See nothing yet to signal danger other than overbought conditions.

SMH (Semiconductors) Been recommending this group since 31.50 as well. Now 2 recent tops at 34.36 to clear.

IYT (Transportation) That DOJI did indeed lead to some trouble. A gap lower even more ominous, otherwise more digestion than anything else.

XLE (Energy) Now, through 71.79 should be able to power out. Otherwise, under the week's low, not a good sign for this group.

TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bonds) Still holding the gap higher from Monday unless it breaks lower than 118.55. Subs-now 2 days under the FTP and needs to clear R1 119.52 to get long again.

Longs: Will continue to watch the recent picks from this week.

TPX After the gap higher last week, been consolidating and holding the gap with now 2 inside days and positive pivots at 67.82. Max risk 65.91 and can use under today's low and S1. . Must soon clear the recent highs 70.43 to get another leg up. There is trendline on the weekly chart that breaks out if closes the week above that price with a measured move to anywhere from 10.00 to 20.00 higher. Day to Swing

JCP 3 days under the FTP at 41.20 with risk 40.00. Then got a really nice base on the weekly so would manage as a swing trade watching the daily RSIs. Day to Short-Term Swing.

ALTR Interesting looking hammer candle with a close right on the 200 DMA and positive pivots so max risk S1 39.42. And, if can power away from 40.50 to 40.60, has room to 50.00. Day to Swing

APC Not quite overbought and needs to clear 82.62 even though pivots positive at 81.74 with max risk around S1. 2011 high 85.50 then could go another 10.00 or so. Day to Short-term Swing

Honorable Mention: Must Clear: JWN (50.00) CAT (111.00) JPM (38.16) AAPL (Narrow Range 11 Must Clear 457.17) Pivots Positive OR Reversal Candidates: HOG (Risk S1 44.39) ASH (Should clear 65.00 Risk 64.11) MOS (56.53 Risk) MHS (Had one today now Risk 62.35) FSLR (Risk 44.00)


TIF Negative Pivots 63.99 and cannot clear 64.50 conservatively (R1). Also has to break the 10 DMA at 63.37 to see 61.00 or lower. Day to Swing

Honorable Mention: UA (Cannot clear 79.00) DVN (Cannot Clear 64.55) WPI (59.25) HLF (Must break 57.33 Risk 58.24) WLP (65.99)