Archives: Mish's Daily

Open Your Mind to an Orderly Market in a Disorderly World

Mish Schneider | March 9, 2019

The title is meant to illustrate that the market might seem orderly, but the world as we know it has changed. Or, at the very least, the old rules may no longer apply. Global growth is slowing, while awareness that the U.S. is not immune, is evolving. Traditional economics would suggest that if growth slows, commodities fall further in price. I don’t think so. That paradigm has shifted. Why? First, the reiteration this week that

Can Commodity Prices Rise?

Mish Schneider | March 7, 2019

The market did exactly what we thought it would do given the blog from February 25th when I observed a, “Nasty Potential Topping Pattern in the Four Indices.” From there, we examined Transportation IYT, which failed the 50-week moving average after two weeks trading above it. We compared IYT to the Russell 2000 IWM, which after two weeks above its 50-WMA, failed it this week thus following IYT’s lead. Last night, I queried on whether

Is RIP a Market ETF?

Mish Schneider | March 6, 2019

Yesterday, I focused on NASDAQ and many names within the QQQs index that had had its share of fun. But for the more important macro indices, keeping them green with the Russell 2000 IWM and Transportation IWT weak, presented issues. Weak small caps and Transportation combined, will statistically lead to selling everywhere. Hence, IWM got crunched, more so than any other index. The QQQs though, remain above all moving averages on all timeframes. Despite the

Lifting the Market Bulls Like a Fallen Boulder

Mish Schneider | March 5, 2019

NASDAQ and many names within the QQQs index had fun today. But for the more important macro indices, keeping them green was like trying to lift a fallen boulder. An aside, this boulder looks a bit like a pig-our pig Mr. Ham. See yesterday’s blog. We have been here before. The Russell 2000 and Transportation begin to fade, while the money gleefully enters the QQQs and FAANG stocks. And just like the adage “rinse, wash,

The Brown Earth Pig Dreads A Spring Bath

Mish Schneider | March 4, 2019

I continue to have Raymond Lo’s analysis in my mind-  “Pig is the stage when fire is “Terminated” and the fearful water element is going to take over.  As water symbolizes fear, there is lacking of optimism in the Pig year and it will bring decline in economic growth and activities leading to longer term setback of the stock market and more economic crisis will come up.” Over the weekend, I wrote about an anomaly between

Two Sectors, Same Family-One Grew Much Bigger

Mish Schneider | March 3, 2019

These adorable Havanese puppies are siblings. The one on the left is the male. The one on the right is the female. Typically, this breed does not produce such a huge difference in size between the male and the female. These sibs are a bit of an anomaly. When stocks ended the week, we saw a similar anomaly in the market and particularly in the Modern Family. While the Granddad Russell 2000 IWM gained in

Tran=Transition: How Transportation Helps Us See

Mish Schneider | February 28, 2019

Ok, the cartoon and me in character as Transportation might appear a bit silly, but the content and its importance to the overall market is hardly so. Combing the technical signal in the Transportation sector IYT, along with the classic inside day in the S&P 500 and the Dow, is exciting to tech nerds like Tran (and me.) The alignment you are about to see is nearly textbook perfect. How can something so complicated be

Is the Market Spiraling Towards Death or Rebirth?

Mish Schneider | February 27, 2019

I photgraphed this in Bluff, Utah near the San Juan River. In Native American cultures, “The spiral seems to tell a story about the labyrinthine journey of life and death and speaks of the possibility of rebirth.” “Each loop of the spiral progresses us to a higher level, yet always returns us to the same place. It demonstrates life renewal by returning to the source.” Simply put, death brings new life. In market terms, did

The Weekly Scene in the Economic Modern Family

Mish Schneider | February 26, 2019

With all the opposing opinions on whether or not the market is topping or pausing for another leg up, it’s time to show the Family. Once again from left to right Top row-Granddad Russell 2000 IWM, Granny Retail XRT, Brother Tran Transportation IYT. Bottom row-Big Brother Biotechnology IBB, Prodigal Son Regional Banks KRE, Sister Semiconductors, SMH. What is the Family telling us? IWM broke the 50-WMA at 157 intraday and closed right on it. That

Nasty Potential Topping Pattern in the Four Indices

Mish Schneider | February 25, 2019

If a picture of the Russell 2000 says 2000 words, then today’s potential topping pattern could say a lot more. Abbreviated Levels below: (computer issues today) S&P 500 (SPY) 280.40 the last December swing high before the crash. With the close below, possible top is in. 276.00 is next the important support to hold on a closing basis Russell 2000 (IWM) November 8th high 157.90 is now pivotal. It’s also where the 200-DMA is. Since