Archives: Weekly Market Outlook

Round 2 Goes to China

Keith Schneider | October 13, 2019

US equity markets were under pressure early in the week, but reversed course Thursday and Friday, ending up about +1% for the week. Risk Gauges all flipped positive. The twitter storm from the White House was relentless, sending the market intra-day up or down 1% within minutes multiple times this week. The call for the Impeachment of President Trump has been gathering steam, but the market ignored it as the bigger headlines took the spotlight.

Dead Unicorns and Small Caps

Keith Schneider | October 6, 2019

U.S. equities closed mostly down for the week after recovering nicely late Thursday and Friday from a 1300-point 3-day swoon in the Dow Industrials. A noteworthy development was that the benchmark small-cap (IWM) index had a death cross and entered a confirmed bear phase from which it was unable to recover. On the lighter side, markets seem to have found support at August lows, and it might have some bounce left in it before it

Is Value Back?

Keith Schneider | September 29, 2019

US equity markets were pressured this week by news of impeachment proceedings against President Trump. The ratcheting up of the trade war with China was the final straw for the markets on Friday with the IWM (Small Caps) leading the decline, down over -3% for the week. Trump announced the he’s considering limiting China’s access to our equity markets and end IPO’s of Chinese domiciled companies on US Exchanges. Markets did not like that at

Flashback to the 70’s

Keith Schneider | September 22, 2019

Global equity markets had a moment of self doubt and most country ETFs backed off after digesting lower rates in the US. The thinking behind the tepid market response actually had some logic to it as the Fed stated they were  concerned about an economic slowdown. Bullish  players that were anticipating  a de-escalation in the trade war were shocked on Friday as talks between China and the US were cut short, and longs bailed.  One

It’s Not (WE) Working

Keith Schneider | September 15, 2019

Global equity markets continued their climb with the S&P 500 hitting new all time highs on Thursday before backing off. Small Caps (IWM) and value stocks roared, ignoring a massive correction in U.S. Treasuries. Small caps ended the week up almost 5%  on good volume, while the S&P 500, the Dow and the NASDQ 100 all paused just below all time highs, up on average +1%. We can attribute this market reaction to cause  and

All Clear….Maybe

Keith Schneider | September 8, 2019

Virtually all global equity markets rallied led by Mexico in the Americas, Korea and China in Asia, and Russia in Europe. The theme here is that weak performers and energy exporters found buyers. Also noteworthy is that speculative sectors and growth stocks led the rally, while shipping stocks look like a bottom is in. What was missing was confirming volume. This actually makes sense from a global macro perspective since the global economy might have

The Impact of More Tariffs and Negative Rates

Keith Schneider | September 1, 2019

US equities bounced off some key support levels late last week. However, the S&P 500 still closed down for the month and It took all of August to digest a nasty sell-off that hit the first few days. Sector performance continues to show a move to safer sectors such as Utilities and Consumer Staples, while precious metals and bonds took center stage. The trade war with China continues to peculate with new tariffs starting today,

The Fed Can’t Calm The Animal Spirits

Geoff Bysshe | August 25, 2019

According to the Wall Street Journal’s (WSJ) front page “What’s News” left had column this weekend… #1 spot: “Trump said he ‘hereby ordered’ U.S. companies doing business in China to explore relocating their operations… A1, A6” #8 spot: “Powell gave his most forceful warning yet about the risks from escalating trade tensions and the limits to the Fed’s ability to cushion any fallout. A1” #9 spot: “Google issued new guidelines limiting employee discussion of politics

This Week The Market Will Decide.

Geoff Bysshe | August 18, 2019

In last week’s Market Outlook, I posed the question, “Did stocks just put in a significant bottom?” Last week’s market action put that thought to the test. The IWM and DIA made new swing lows, but the SPY and QQQ didn’t even come close. And the leading sector, semiconductors, (SMH) didn’t flinch. As a result, the question remains unanswered. Additionally, the condition of the market is now more likely to lead to a bigger next

Stocks Take Two Hits And Recover

Geoff Bysshe | August 11, 2019

Will the bulls thank China for last week’s opportunity to buy stocks lower? Last week began with a punch back from China in the trade war that escalated the concerns of the trade war to concerns of a potential currency war. The result was the biggest one-day percentage decline in the SPY for 2019. It also resulted in pushing the SPY, QQQ, and DIA well under their 50-day moving averages. Additionally, the IWM closed well