Archives: Weekly Market Outlook

Risk On takes a Trip South

Keith Schneider | February 9, 2019

This week’s market action was relatively muted and mostly boring. We did get some entertaining headlines like Pelosi’s famous clap down and Bezos’ war with the National Enquirer that tanked both his marriage and his stock. U.S. Equity markets shrugged off sloppy, choppy sideways action with what appeared to be a mini buying panic in the last few minutes of the trading week. The key stocks indexes (QQQ, SPY, IWM) ended up +.3% on average.


A TIPSY Market

Keith Schneider | February 3, 2019

US Equity markets embraced a newly dovish Fed by tacking on a +1.5% weekly gain. US treasuries decided that it’s inflationary and backed off. Inflation adjusted bonds (TIPS) did well, attacking its 50-week moving average. Meanwhile, other inflation plays such as gold miners (GDX), Oil (USO) Brazil (EWZ) all out performed key benchmark stock indexes this week. On another note, Trump’s pressure on NATO members to pay their fair share of expenses is working as


Not the Queens Gold

Keith Schneider | January 27, 2019

The showdown on the shutdown ended Friday with President Trump backing off for his demand for funding for a border wall, but just the next three weeks. US equity markets paused on their upward (+/- .26%) trajectory as US stocks ended the short week basically unchanged. All key US equities benchmarks confirmed their move to a recuperation phase on positive volume. The short-term patterns for the key indexes are positive while major overhead resistance on


Brinksmanship on the Hill

Keith Schneider | January 20, 2019

Equity markets continued their rebound last week pushing their bullish streak to 3 weeks in a row. U.S. stocks were up almost +3% for the week, and cleared their 50-day moving averages on excellent volume. This price action is bullish, but we’ve also got our eyes on the major overhead supply of stock which comes in about 3-5% above current prices. Additionally, our Alpha Rotation models also issued buy alerts for the all three of


Market Update…. Dual Diagnosis

Keith Schneider | January 13, 2019

Last week we received the psychiatric report that indicated Mr. Market was suffering from Market Nervosa. However, after this week’s session, the diagnosis has been updated, and it now indicates that Mr. Market is also suffering from a bi-polar disorder. Each condition is creating a feedback loop to the other. One reason for the new diagnosis is that the S&P 500 jumped 2.5 percent last week, staging its biggest 10-day rally in a decade and up


Market Nervosa

Keith Schneider | January 6, 2019

Happy New Year and welcome back to Mr. Market who was recently diagnosed with a resurgence of Market Nervosa, a mental condition resulting in wide market swings. This was not unexpected, as he often suffers from episodes of anxiety especially after a very difficult year and a horrible December. On Friday, Mr. Market’s new meds finally kicked in.  He responded well on Friday with an added boost from a very robust employment report. He shook


Off the Rails

Keith Schneider | December 23, 2018

US equities had its worst week in a decade, down -8% on average. So far, it is also the worst December since the Great Depression. There were bad tidings everywhere and a government shutdown is already underway. There is a smorgasbord of bad news and here are just some of the main courses: Interest Rates were hiked again by the Fed (fourth time this year) A trade war with China is gearing up A Government


Risk Off Accelerates

Keith Schneider | December 16, 2018

US equites remain under relentless pressure, giving up some hard-fought gains earlier in the week. Stocks dropped about - 2% on Friday and all key indexes closed negative for the week. Equity outflows hit $46 billion, a record according to Lipper Analytics. Unfortunately, rather than being a good contrarian signal this negative sentiment is likely to hang around like a bad smell for at least the next 3 months. The sell-off occurred despite the news


Global Stress Sink Equities

Keith Schneider | December 9, 2018

The trade war with China is heating up, while France is melting down and both are not good indicators for the global economy. Luxury living in Paris has been reduced to living with a gas mask as our friends photo sent to us this Saturday attests to. US equites continued its wild ride, going from deeply oversold to overbought and back to oversold where it currently sits when measured on a short-term basis. U.S. Stocks


Value Earns its Keep

Keith Schneider | December 2, 2018

US equites regained its footing this week led by the NASDQ 100 up +6.22%, recovering after last week’s indigestion. All key US stock indexes are once again up YTD. Looking at the bigger picture, stocks have been overeating for quite some time, feasting on low rates and tax cuts while ignoring a volatile geo-political environment.  Brexit, Trade Wars, riots in France, and Russian aggression top the list, but there is a lot more brewing. Last