Archives: Weekly Market Outlook

Bears Grizzled and Going Vegan

Keith Schneider | January 19, 2020

US Equities made mincemeat (for those vegans’ please substitute meat with a BYND burger) of the bears as last Friday’s bearish engulfing pattern failed with equities again roaring to new highs. All key U.S. equity indexes are now up on the year led by NASADQ 100 (QQQ) which is up more that 5%. This is more than one would make sitting with the U.S. long bond for over a year. However, there is a clear

Cane Looking Able

Keith Schneider | January 12, 2020

US Equity markets rejected a gap to new highs and closed on Friday with a bearish engulfing pattern. Engulfing patterns are notoriously unreliable except when they are not. This is similar in concept to the October seasonal where several devastating high sigma events have occurred (1929, 1987,2008). Normally, October is a pretty strong month, however when it’s not, its life changing if you are caught on the wrong side of it. Considering that the massive

Gold On Fire

Keith Schneider | January 5, 2020

The new decade started on a tear with U.S. equities (led by the NASDAQ 100) making all-time highs yet again, but it backed off by Friday’s close. The retracement was in response to news of President Trump ordering the killing of the Iranian military leader, Qassem Soleimani who was in Baghdad planning new attacks on American interests. Mr. Soleimani is considered a national hero in Iran, and a terrorist by the U.S. and its allies.

This Year's January Trend Trade Even More Critical

Keith Schneider | December 29, 2019

The Dow, the SPY, and the QQQ all hit new all-time highs up another +.75% on average and look frothy. Emerging markets and precious metals broke out of classic chart patterns to the upside and look poised for more. The big question confronting the markets is whether the Federal Reserve and the Central Banks of the world are losing control and the next phase is an inflationary spiral. This, of course, would at some point

TSLA Shorts Throwing in the Towel

Keith Schneider | December 22, 2019

Nothing like an impeachment of the President to fuel the markets to new highs. Talking about counter intuitive, Tesla hit also all-time highs and closed out the week over $400, destroying short sellers who have lost billions in one of the most hated stocks by Wall Street pros. The short covering may not be over yet either, as the recent price action could attract even more new buyers once the short-term overbought situation works itself

Handoff to Emerging Markets

Keith Schneider | December 15, 2019

Equity markets blasted higher this week with virtually all global equities joining the party.  Markets loved the good employment report in the US (unemployment levels at 3.5%) and of course a truce in the trade war with China. The excellent reception of the IPO of ARAMCO did not hurt either. The $2 trillion dollar valuation seems lofty considering the longer-term outlook for oil. The recent attack on Saudi refineries is another concern, although secret talks

Will The Small Caps Take The Lead?

Geoff Bysshe | December 8, 2019

After a two-day correction back to its breakout level, the IWM vaulted to new 52-week highs on the back of an employment report that surprised even the most bullish analysts. Last week’s price action revealed some very interesting shifts in market leadership. In this week’s Market Outlook videos, I highlight the markets, sectors, and indicators to watch to confirm whether these shifts will become the new trends. Here are some of the highlights: Risk Gauges

Enjoy the Froth

Keith Schneider | December 1, 2019

US Equities once again shrugged off added geopolitical stress with several benchmark indexes hitting new highs this week. This week new tensions appeared after Trump signed a bill supporting Hong Kong protestors. Henry Kissinger, 96, former secretary of State, relic/icon of the cold war and largely responsible for opening up trade with China is urging the US to recognize that China is now an equal on the world stage and avert a catastrophic war. He

Small Caps Lag

Keith Schneider | November 24, 2019

US Equities once again shrugged off the drama unfolding on the Congressional stage by closing down less than -.5%.for the week. A possible trade deal with China offset the bad Juju of the impeachment hearings. That is good performance after the huge run up to new all-time highs for most for most key US Equity benchmarks. However, Small Caps or Grandpa Russell continue to lag, highlighting the fact that tariffs have not helped US based

Oil Compressing

Keith Schneider | November 17, 2019

US Equities shrugged off the political theater on Capitol Hill, the trade war with China, and assorted rebellions on multiple continents. Three out of the four key US equity indexes hit new all-time highs up another .75% on average, while small caps (IWM) still lag by a wide margin. The newest riots underway are in Chile. These started soon after the local government announced a 20-cent increase in subway fares in Santiago (its capitol). This