Archives: Weekly Market Outlook

Will The Small Caps Take The Lead?

Geoff Bysshe | December 8, 2019

After a two-day correction back to its breakout level, the IWM vaulted to new 52-week highs on the back of an employment report that surprised even the most bullish analysts. Last week’s price action revealed some very interesting shifts in market leadership. In this week’s Market Outlook videos, I highlight the markets, sectors, and indicators to watch to confirm whether these shifts will become the new trends. Here are some of the highlights: Risk Gauges

Enjoy the Froth

Keith Schneider | December 1, 2019

US Equities once again shrugged off added geopolitical stress with several benchmark indexes hitting new highs this week. This week new tensions appeared after Trump signed a bill supporting Hong Kong protestors. Henry Kissinger, 96, former secretary of State, relic/icon of the cold war and largely responsible for opening up trade with China is urging the US to recognize that China is now an equal on the world stage and avert a catastrophic war. He

Small Caps Lag

Keith Schneider | November 24, 2019

US Equities once again shrugged off the drama unfolding on the Congressional stage by closing down less than -.5%.for the week. A possible trade deal with China offset the bad Juju of the impeachment hearings. That is good performance after the huge run up to new all-time highs for most for most key US Equity benchmarks. However, Small Caps or Grandpa Russell continue to lag, highlighting the fact that tariffs have not helped US based

Oil Compressing

Keith Schneider | November 17, 2019

US Equities shrugged off the political theater on Capitol Hill, the trade war with China, and assorted rebellions on multiple continents. Three out of the four key US equity indexes hit new all-time highs up another .75% on average, while small caps (IWM) still lag by a wide margin. The newest riots underway are in Chile. These started soon after the local government announced a 20-cent increase in subway fares in Santiago (its capitol). This

Value Continues to Perform

Keith Schneider | November 11, 2019

This week’s Market Outlook is abbreviated due to our travel schedule.  We taught a master class at TradersExpo in Las Vegas. This week’s highlights are: Risk Gauges are 100% bullish Volume patterns remain decent overall Market Internals are slipping despite the continued run-up Market Sentiment has reached short term frothy levels Semi’s continuing to lead by a wide margin Value stocks are now leading the recent move up and broke out on a longer-term basis

Small Caps and Value Trying

Keith Schneider | November 3, 2019

Equity markets globally blasted higher this week with Russia leading the pack of actively traded country funds up, +2.65%. As we highlighted last week, Russia has been strong and received added help from the energy market on Friday.  Russia (RSX) is now up over +15% the past 6 months, outpacing the US, which is up about +4%. On the domestic front, both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 hit new all-time highs. The big

From Russia With Love

Keith Schneider | October 27, 2019

As markets exit from the most dicey month of the year, it is interesting to note that key US equity benchmarks are still down a bit over the last three month rolling period despite the recent surge. Don’t get me wrong, equity markets look poised to surge into year-end, but the longer-term weekly charts are still looking heavy from a momentum perspective. The exception to this is the three-month performance of the NASDAQ 100 which

Sea Change Underway led by Small Caps, Value, and Foreign Equities

Keith Schneider | October 20, 2019

US equity markets were mostly flat this week except for small caps which led, up +1.59% playing catch up. Looking under the hood showed that sector rotation was confusing. Semis and, technology which are the leading hot speculative sectors, backed off as did Utilities which is a safety play. Its unusual that both were down at the same time, hence we have a mixed message. While we are looking under the hood, we see some

Round 2 Goes to China

Keith Schneider | October 13, 2019

US equity markets were under pressure early in the week, but reversed course Thursday and Friday, ending up about +1% for the week. Risk Gauges all flipped positive. The twitter storm from the White House was relentless, sending the market intra-day up or down 1% within minutes multiple times this week. The call for the Impeachment of President Trump has been gathering steam, but the market ignored it as the bigger headlines took the spotlight.

Dead Unicorns and Small Caps

Keith Schneider | October 6, 2019

U.S. equities closed mostly down for the week after recovering nicely late Thursday and Friday from a 1300-point 3-day swoon in the Dow Industrials. A noteworthy development was that the benchmark small-cap (IWM) index had a death cross and entered a confirmed bear phase from which it was unable to recover. On the lighter side, markets seem to have found support at August lows, and it might have some bounce left in it before it