Archives: Weekly Market Outlook

Plunge Protection Team Working Overtime

Keith Schneider | March 29, 2020

US stock indexes Market’s bounced up around +11% with a little help from the Fed and a touch of emergency funding from Capitol Hill ($2 trillion). Meanwhile, the virus’s infection rate continues to explode, with NYC the epicenter.  This week’s takeaway is the Plunge Protection Team efforts to prop up the markets worked (for the moment) while virus containment efforts not so much. The biggest question hanging in the ether is will the fiscal and

Are You Ready for More

Keith Schneider | March 22, 2020

Markets worldwide got hit even harder this week with the Dow Industrials down -17% and down over - 32% YTD as humanity battles the spreading virus. The massive drop of almost over 40% in IWM (Small Caps) this year highlights the extreme liquidity issues facing smaller companies with lower cash reserves and higher debt levels. The Dow, S&P 500, and IWM are all trading beneath their 200-week moving averages. Both the Dow and the Russell

You Keep Me Hanging On

Keith Schneider | March 15, 2020

Market’s globally got hit hard as even traditional safe havens did not work.  Many countries are on lockdown and most likely, we are already in a Global Recession. The 10 year plus bull market has ended officially with indexes down over 20% from its all-time highs. However, the long-term trend starting from the lows in 2009, has only been broken in IWM and the Dow, while both the SPY and QQQ indexes either held their

Gold, Ready …. or Not?

Keith Schneider | March 8, 2020

Equity markets digested last week's dead cat bounce and closed virtually unchanged as the virus takes in toll in both a rising body count and economically. Despite the neutral close for the week, the most important indicator is a new one called the TPI (Toilet Paper Indicator) and it is still calling for a s**t storm. People are hoarding supplies and in some place’s toilet paper is sold out. Until this panic flushes itself and

Emerging or Submerging?

Keith Schneider | March 1, 2020

The Corona virus continues to spread, and equity markets tanked globally. US equity markets were down -11% on average and there was not one foreign stock market positive for the week. This is one of the worst weekly selloffs ever, and the fastest correction from new all-time highs on record. US long bonds was one of the few bright spots and markets are now pricing several rates cuts this year with one coming this month.

Gold Miners Leaving its Seven Year Bearish Itch

Keith Schneider | February 23, 2020

The Corona virus continues to run amuck and is creating havoc on human lives and the markets.  So rather than focus on opinions about whether or not it will become a worldwide pandemic, let’s look at the immediate impact. First and foremost, Apple was hit hard this week and ended down over -2.5% on Friday and is now off -5% from its recent highs. Considering Apple is the biggest component in our key benchmark indexes,

Risk Gauges Still Flashing Yellow

Keith Schneider | February 17, 2020

US stocks seem to like the bickering from democratic presidential contenders and the lingering threat of the Coronavirus, as three out of four US equity benchmarks hit new all-time highs. Small caps and value stocks continue to lag. As I am writing this (Monday), the spread of the Coronavirus seems to be subsiding with Chinese markets bouncing. Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on its biggest pile of cash ever ($128 billion) while Charlie Munger warns

Breaking Up Is Hard To Do

Keith Schneider | February 9, 2020

The Senate acquitted President Trump this week ending the impeachment saga and China reduced tariffs on $75 billion dollars of US exports. Equity markets loved it, closing up over +3% on decent volume. The overall picture for equities is still murky despite the move to all time highs in the S&P500, the Dow Industrials, and the Nasdaq 100. The Euro looks like is heading to par against the dollar and could be an early sign

Tesla Defies the Selloff, Short Sellers Smoked

Keith Schneider | February 2, 2020

US equities tanked, and as we highlighted last week the spreading virus was simply the tipping point for an insanely overvalued and overbought market. Three out of four equity benchmarks are down for the year. Apple looks like it ran out of momentum and might have put in an intermediate term top or even more. In fact, most FANG stocks are looking tired and are getting some dental work, which entails filing down some very

Equities Meet Mother Nature

Keith Schneider | January 26, 2020

The outbreak of a nasty virus that started in China has spread from animals to humans and now the financial markets. Equities actually sold off, hitting Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan the hardest. Not surprising, since those markets have been most impacted by the spreading virus. The divergence of our Risk Gauges action as equities  continued to new highs was  major concern and sets up the scenario where the virus could be the catalyst