Archives: Weekly Market Outlook

Markets are Free …... To go up

Keith Schneider | July 5, 2020

The NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) closed the week at new all-time highs, +1.65%, while the Dow Industrials (DIA) was down -.2%. In fact, YTD, the Dow is down -9.36% while the Nasdaq 100 is up 18.62%, certainly a tale of two markets. Of course, the Fed stepped up its intervention yet again after last weeks attempt to sell off.  Stepping back and looking at the big themes with half the year in the rear-view mirror is

Gold Bugs Buzzing with Joy

Keith Schneider | June 28, 2020

The easing of the lock down has resulted in a huge spike up of infections and a corresponding spike down in stock prices. Equities closed down about -3% on average and are now mostly down over the last month. Stepping back and looking at the big picture here is what we see. Both the Fed and Capitol Hill have handed out trillions of dollars over the last few months to stabilize the impact of the

Powell Struggling, Not Shrugging

Keith Schneider | June 21, 2020

US Equity Markets closed up on the week, led by the NASDAQ 100 which was up +3.5%. The news of a spike in the spread of the virus, triggered Apple to close stores in several states. That hit the tape late Friday and equity markets promptly sold off, closing on their daily lows. The rally early in the week fizzled after the Fed announced that it will directly buy corporate debt (or any financial asset),

You Keep Me Hanging On

Keith Schneider | June 14, 2020

US Equity Markets reversed course and closed down -5% for the week on average. Risk gauges followed suit and closed in risk off mode. The selloff was largely a reaction to the Feds plans regarding rates heading into in 2022. They were very dovish because the economy will remain weak, The news of low rates for the foreseeable future spooked Mr. Market. Now that is a big change, (low rates =horrific price action) and if

What Virus?

Keith Schneider | June 7, 2020

US Equity Markets yet again tacked on some serious gains led by IWM (Grandpa Russell) which was up more than 8% for the week. It reduced its YTD loss to just- 9.355 while the S&P500 is now basically flat. The Dow Industrials (INDU), the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 all gapped higher and continued to close strong. Risk off / safety plays got left in the dust and there was not one country fund

Invest with the Fed

Keith Schneider | May 31, 2020

U.S. equity markets improved their footing with most key benchmarks gaining more than 3% for the week. The NASDAQ 100 is up over 9.76% YTD, and the S&P 500 regained its 200-day moving average. This recovery of the S&P 500 (after dropping more than 20% below its 200 DMA) is the fastest on record. However, do not get too excited and think we are out of the woods as the IWM (Grandpa Russell) is still

Bubble Trouble or Not?

Keith Schneider | May 25, 2020

US Equity markets regained its footing with most key benchmarks gaining 3% for the week. The NASDAQ 100 is up over 8% YTD while the IWM (Grandpa Russell) is down -18.58% during the same period. This divergence in price action between small caps and growth stocks mirrors the issues facing the nation on both the political and economic front. Depending on whom you speak to about the markets, we are either in a massive bubble

Seismic Shift

Keith Schneider | May 17, 2020

US Equity markets retreated this week down between -.7 to -5.5%, but found support at their 50 day moving averages, preventing what was looking like a meltdown in the making. One short term sentiment indicator hit oversold levels which helped to trigger the bounce. Overall, we have made no forward progress since early to mid-April and are compressing, setting up for a large move. Globally all stock indexes were down on the week, with Switzerland


Keith Schneider | May 10, 2020

Equity markets shrugged off Mr.Buffet's recent dumping of his airlines stocks (mentioned at his annual shareholder's meeting last Saturday) and reversed what looked like a serious selloff int the making. Oil and energy bounced off very depressed prices ignoring the weakness in the airlines and markets stayed focused on a gradual reopening of the economy. Small Caps continued their recent strength on good volume. So did lumber, which could be an early inflationary indicator. Despite

Fill it Up, Please

Keith Schneider | May 3, 2020

After devouring the bears this month (+13% on average), the bulls needed some Tums to digest overeating this week. What happens next seems to be a coin toss. However, two things are clear. First, there has been a rotation to small caps, and second, any country that intelligently navigates the Covid-19 virus will reap the rewards financially. So far, the winner is Taiwan by a large margin because it was out front in its early