Archives: Weekly Market Outlook

Risk Off Accelerates

Keith Schneider | December 16, 2018

US equites remain under relentless pressure, giving up some hard-fought gains earlier in the week. Stocks dropped about - 2% on Friday and all key indexes closed negative for the week. Equity outflows hit $46 billion, a record according to Lipper Analytics. Unfortunately, rather than being a good contrarian signal this negative sentiment is likely to hang around like a bad smell for at least the next 3 months. The sell-off occurred despite the news

Global Stress Sink Equities

Keith Schneider | December 9, 2018

The trade war with China is heating up, while France is melting down and both are not good indicators for the global economy. Luxury living in Paris has been reduced to living with a gas mask as our friends photo sent to us this Saturday attests to. US equites continued its wild ride, going from deeply oversold to overbought and back to oversold where it currently sits when measured on a short-term basis. U.S. Stocks

Value Earns its Keep

Keith Schneider | December 2, 2018

US equites regained its footing this week led by the NASDQ 100 up +6.22%, recovering after last week’s indigestion. All key US stock indexes are once again up YTD. Looking at the bigger picture, stocks have been overeating for quite some time, feasting on low rates and tax cuts while ignoring a volatile geo-political environment.  Brexit, Trade Wars, riots in France, and Russian aggression top the list, but there is a lot more brewing. Last

No Market for Passive Investors

Keith Schneider | November 25, 2018

US equites retreated yet again this week, down - 4% on average leaving 3 out of 4 key benchmarks indexes down for the year. Volume patterns show institutional selling with only one accumulation day over the past several weeks. FANG stocks plus APPL continue to falter, which casts a dark cloud over the market. From our vantage point, this is no time to be a passive investor as sentiment for this approach has reached a

The Destabilizing Lynchpins of the Market

Keith Schneider | November 18, 2018

US equites retreated this week, ranging from down over -2% for both the Dow and NASDQ 100 to down -1.3% for the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500. FANG stocks have completely unraveled, down 20 - 40%   from respective highs, with Facebook reeling on multiple fronts.  Latest medical research shows that people who are big users of Facebook, are more depressed than even their stockholders. The global political stage seems to be unravelling like a

Risk Gauges Retreat Despite Rally

Keith Schneider | November 11, 2018

Despite the pre and post-election rally that resulted in 3 out of the four key US stock market indexes gaining nicely for the week, our risk gauges thought otherwise, slipping back to neutral territory. For tape readers, a failure here would be very disconcerting. October’s drop is now the second 10% drop this year. That is not a common occurrence when that manifests in all the major benchmarks. Two drops of 10% in less than

When is She Coming Back?

Keith Schneider | November 4, 2018

Now that the bad witch that takes flight occasionally during October has done her thing and scared everyone, what does that bode for the market? Considering last week’s rally, is she back in her lair?  Is she not merely dead, but really most sincerely dead? In advance of this week’s midterm election, the market has given a huge rise in long term rates, movement to safety plays such as Big Cap Value stocks, and defensive

Happy (Not so much) Anniversary

Keith Schneider | October 28, 2018

Historically, looking back over the past 20 years, October is the best performing month with an average return of +2.49%. However, as we pointed out in our October 7 edition of Market Outlook, when things don’t pan out according to historical averages markets get hysterical. Stock market crashes in October happen just before Halloween and include the one in 1987, the panic in 1907, and the crash in 1929, culminating on black Tuesday (October 29)

What’s Not Up?

Keith Schneider | October 21, 2018

Global Equity markets had a hard time finding equilibrium.  US Equities, while still the global leader, barely stayed positive with IWM closing down on the week. The Russell 2000 (IWM), which is the broadest gauge of the US economy, broke down on daily charts in late September and is now showing the same thing on the weekly charts, with momentum at the lowest level in 1 ½ years. The unintended consequences of trade wars and

All that Glitters

Keith Schneider | October 14, 2018

Equities markets on Planet Earth got crushed this week, averaging about -4.0% even after Fridays bounce which was not very convincing as volume was very light. US equites which has been one of the holdouts this year finally gave up the ghost. The Russell 2000 (IWM) barely managed to stay positive on Friday’s bounce and is up just +.75% year to date. On the other hand, Gold and Gold miners roared on Thursday. Soft commodities