Archives: Weekly Market Outlook

A Golden Market Memo?

Keith Schneider | June 16, 2019

US Equities markets digested gains from early June and ended the week  up about +.6% on average. The message is mixed with cyclical sectors not following the key indexes price performance.  Emerging markets submerged while soft  commodities firmed. Gold and gold miners (GDX) also look poised to run. Gold has received a lot of good press from macro gurus like Paul Tudor Jones whom I traded alongside of in  the commodities pits in the World

“A Little Help From My Friends (the Fed)”

Keith Schneider | June 9, 2019

US Equities got a lot of new help from one if its friends, the Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Powell stated that tariffs could shave some points off of growth, hence, a need to lower rates. That spurred a vicious stock market rally of almost 4% for the week. “Gonna get by with my friends (Ah, with a little help from my friends) Yeah yeah, I'm gonna try (Ah, with a little help from my friends)

Not Your Ordinary Black Swan

Keith Schneider | June 2, 2019

US Equities got smacked once again, down more than -6% on average for the not so merry month of May. The trade war with China continues to escalate and a short term pop fizzled on Friday after Trump announced tariffs on Mexico. This was a big surprise to the markets as the US had just recently signed a trade agreement with both Canada and Mexico. It is quite unusual to use an immigration issue to start a

Geo-Political Stress and a Bear Flag

Keith Schneider | May 19, 2019

US Equities got hit yet again, led by Grandpa Russell, (IWM) which tanked -2.4% on week. The trade war with China escalated, as did tensions with Iran which sent Oil (USO) up almost +2%. Stocks went into a nasty retreat on a global basis. Not surprisingly,the exceptions were Russia and Switzerland. Looking South of our Border, Brazil got hit the hardest down over -8% for the week, which basically wiped out the gains since Jair

Just a Tweet Away

Keith Schneider | May 12, 2019

US Equities got hit hard, down -2.5%  on average, as the tariff war with China escalated. It sent stocks into a nasty retreat on a global basis. China got hit the hardest down -6.55%. In fact, there was not a single Global Equity (Country funds) index that had a positive return this week. Trade wars are just not good the the global economy. Grandpa Russell (IWM) managed to hold onto its 200 day moving average

Grandpa Russell (IWM) Awakes

Keith Schneider | May 5, 2019

Equities markets put in a respectable week as Fridays action turned things around from what was looking like a key reversal pattern. IWM was up almost +2% on Friday and +1.4 % on the week.  The catalyst was the  jobs report which was very strong, showing that unemployement is the lowest it’s been in 49 years at 3.6%. For those that think the glass is always half empty, wage growth was anemic. Classic analysis regarding

GDP and The 3 Bears.

Geoff Bysshe | April 28, 2019

This week we learned that Q1 GDP rose more than expected (3.2% vs. 2.5% estimates.) But that’s just the headline. More importantly, there is the rest of the story. If you look “under the hood” you’ll find 3 bears. Exports were pulled forward due to increasing trade tensions with China, which suggest exports will decline in the future. An increased level of inventories. This suggests production may decline in the future. Consumer spending declined relative

Housing Starts Stopping

Keith Schneider | April 21, 2019

The long-expected Mueller report (redacted) was finally released and the market hardly reacted. Meanwhile, most major US market indexes continued to march forward with the NASDQ 100 leading, up 1.28% over the last 5 trading days. One ominous sign is that small caps (IWM) or the Russell 2000 has been badly lagging and is now in defensive mode. It moved back under both its 200 day and 50 week moving averages. The divergences in sectors

The Physics of Shorting

Keith Schneider | April 13, 2019

US and Global Equities continued to rally, with the NASDQ 100 +.63% for the week. It is just a hair from making new all-time highs, as shown on the chart above This rally off the Late December lows is a classic V pattern that has taken 6 months to complete. This V pattern, so late in the economic cycle is highly unusual. Is this the new physics of shorting, where seller’s equity gets sucked into

Musk Melts Down, Emerging Markets Emerge

Keith Schneider | April 6, 2019

Global Equites melted up, gaining over 2.5% on average this week led by Emerging Markets. Norway’s highly respected $ 1 trillion-dollar sovereign wealth fund is dumping Emerging Market bonds and moving into Emerging Market equities. This should be considered a smart move by smart fund managers. US Equities were handed a nice surprise on Friday as March showed good employment growth. On the flip side, wages stagnated for those that are employed. The takeaway, its