Archives: Weekly Market Outlook

This Week The Market Will Decide.

Geoff Bysshe | August 18, 2019

In last week’s Market Outlook, I posed the question, “Did stocks just put in a significant bottom?” Last week’s market action put that thought to the test. The IWM and DIA made new swing lows, but the SPY and QQQ didn’t even come close. And the leading sector, semiconductors, (SMH) didn’t flinch. As a result, the question remains unanswered. Additionally, the condition of the market is now more likely to lead to a bigger next

Stocks Take Two Hits And Recover

Geoff Bysshe | August 11, 2019

Will the bulls thank China for last week’s opportunity to buy stocks lower? Last week began with a punch back from China in the trade war that escalated the concerns of the trade war to concerns of a potential currency war. The result was the biggest one-day percentage decline in the SPY for 2019. It also resulted in pushing the SPY, QQQ, and DIA well under their 50-day moving averages. Additionally, the IWM closed well

“Risk Off is Back On”

Keith Schneider | August 4, 2019

U.S. Stock indexes gave up all the gains made in July in just a few days, led by the NASDAQ 100 which dropped -4.07% for the week. There are several factors contributing to the sell-off that include an escalating trade war with China (new tariffs starting in September) and a rate cut by the Fed that either was not enough or unwelcome. Robert Schiller (the Nobel prize winner in economics) noted that we have the

Changing of the Guard

Keith Schneider | July 28, 2019

US Stock indexes made impressive gains this week , +2% ( give or take) , as long as one ignored the Dow industrials which managed to stay positive. Boeing dragged the Dow down after it reported earnings as it struggles to deal with the debacle regarding two fatal  crashes due to design flaws in its it newest jet. Weekly charts on the key indexes continue to show divergences as momentum lags. Meanwhile , the daily

Appearance Reality Dichotomy

Keith Schneider | July 20, 2019

Despite the attention grabbing headlines of the S&P 500, NASDQ100, and the Dow industrials all hitting new all time highs early this week, stocks closed down by Friday and the Dow (DIA) had a bearish engulfing pattern. Geopolitical tension and a slowing global economy were contributing factors. Risk gauges backed off to neutral.  The take away is  what appears to be true may not be reality. Equity markets are behaving more like an adolescent than

Soft Commodities Firming

Keith Schneider | July 14, 2019

US Equities markets continued its melt up +.75% on average , hitting new all time highs in three out of key benchmarks while interest rates sold off hard after a dismal bond auction. Economic data points to a slowing global economy with China’s exports declining as imports plunged. Singapore’s economy is shrinking as well which is not a good sign as its generally perceived as a lead indicator for global demand or the proverbial canary

All That Glitters

Keith Schneider | July 7, 2019

The performance of the US Equities markets was strong, up over +2% on average for the week. Meanwhile the IWM confirmed a bull phase on excellent volume. Gold (GLD) sold off  Friday but held onto it’s breakaway gap put in a few weeks ago and still strongly in play. Economic data points to a slowing global economy despite the very strong jobs market in the US, even while corporate earnings have been slashed for the

Is Grandpa for Real

Keith Schneider | June 30, 2019

The performance of the US Equities markets was a mixed bag as the Dow, NASDQ 100, and the S&P 500 closed down on the week. Meanwhile the IWM which has been lagging since the fall of 2018 came alive Friday, rallying +1.6% and closed in an unconfirmed bullish phase. The G20 meeting in Japan culminated in a meeting with President Trump and President Xi agreeing to talk more, keeping current tariffs in place but not

Risk Gauges Stuck in Neutral

Keith Schneider | June 23, 2019

US Equities markets ripped higher after the Fed announced it’s intention to lower rates ( coming soon to a bank near you ).US Equity benchmarks were up between +1.4%  and +3.3% depending on the poison you pick. In fact the S & P 500 hit new all time highs and paused on Friday, putting in a inside day. Which way it breaks from here will be telling and could be setting up for bear trap

A Golden Market Memo?

Keith Schneider | June 16, 2019

US Equities markets digested gains from early June and ended the week  up about +.6% on average. The message is mixed with cyclical sectors not following the key indexes price performance.  Emerging markets submerged while soft  commodities firmed. Gold and gold miners (GDX) also look poised to run. Gold has received a lot of good press from macro gurus like Paul Tudor Jones whom I traded alongside of in  the commodities pits in the World