Archives: Weekly Market Outlook

Gold Seasonals Wreaking Havoc

Keith Schneider | September 27, 2020

US equity markets mostly retreated, with the NASDAQ 100 bucking the sell off and closing +1.76% on the week. Meanwhile, Small Caps fell with Grandpa Russell (IWM) closing -4.48%, erasing much of the improvement over key US equity benchmarks. Globally stocks retreated with no exceptions. The leadership shifts we saw over the past few weeks reversed with Growth closing strong on Friday. However, one exception, was precious metals which broke down hard and remained weak

Changing of the Guard

Keith Schneider | September 20, 2020

US Equity Markets mostly retreated, led by the NASDAQ 100 which was down -1.32% for the week. The major theme is that rotation is occurring across all asset classes with new leadership appearing. Making up for lost ground, Small Caps rallied with Grandpa Russell (IWM) closing up +2.78% for the week on improving volume. Value stocks (VTV) which have been lagging Growth stocks (VUG) for over a decade, confirmed a breakout on a short-term basis.

Risk Off Returns

Keith Schneider | September 13, 2020

Markets retreated yet again with the key US indexes trading down about -3% on average, led by the NASDAQ 100 and the Russell 2000. The rotation out of growth stocks into commodity plays continued this week as well as stronger performance by foreign equities. One huge divergence in the commodity arena was the -10% drop in Oil and Oil Services while alternative energy, Gold and soft commodities gained. Coal plays, used in the production of

A Classic Standoff

Keith Schneider | September 6, 2020

Markets retreated this week correcting almost 10% after setting new all-time highs on an intraday basis in two US Equity (SPY, QQQ) benchmarks. China announced that it was reducing holdings of US Bonds due to an accelerating trade war. This was part of the catalyst driving the reversal. Similarly, Putin’s playbook and Russia does not include owning any US government debt. Volatility (VXX) jumped +13.8% for the week despite dropping -8.2% on Friday. Financials also

Warning Signs Of A Top; Short-Term

Geoff Bysshe | August 30, 2020

The news of last week was the Fed’s announcement about their “updated monetary policy strategy.” The big change was to suggest that they would let inflation overshoot their 2% goal to prioritize getting unemployment as low as they consider realistic. This probably isn’t much more than stating what the market already assumed they are currently doing, but it does change expectations for how they’ll act when inflation shows up without low enough unemployment. The absurdity

Market Breadth: Not All Bad News

Geoff Bysshe | August 23, 2020

Last week’s news was filled with stories about how the FANG stocks and particularly APPL were the main driving forces behind the new highs in the indexes and their ETFs (i.e. SPY and QQQ). The tone of this type of news is generally negative and dismissive toward the validity of the bull market. The same attitude is prevalent concerning the mega-cap tech names being the only reason the market is up. The argument then follows

TSLA Takes A Page Out of The Fed’s Inflation Playbook.

Geoff Bysshe | August 16, 2020

Elon Musk has a talent for creating news to inflate the value of Tesla. This week he did it again by following Apple and the Fed’s tactics for inflating asset prices. In addition, he cleverly used this tactic to abruptly halt the slide in his stock as it was breaking an important support level and looked destined to head lower. It’s surprising that more companies haven’t followed the Fed’s lead in this way because it’s

Raging Rotation and A Key Reversal

Geoff Bysshe | August 9, 2020

Friday’s price action capped off a string of days that told a story of broadening market strength and expectations of improving economic conditions. On a daily basis, the story sounds like this… On Thursday, TLT quickly retreated after breaching its April swing highs and continued its weakness into Friday, closing below its 10-DMA by the most significant margin in a month. While the QQQ sold off on Friday, the small-caps, Grandpa Russell (IMW) accelerated higher

Alternate Universes

Keith Schneider | August 2, 2020

Equity markets mostly recovered from an early swoon this week buoyed by stellar performance from digital tech giants while safety plays got ignored. The NASDAQ100 closed +4% for the week and up 25% YTD, but the Dow Industrials closed down -.15% for the week  and -7% YTD. So much for the Dow being blue chips, maybe we change the label to red chips. Meanwhile, gold and silver continued their upward trajectories leaving breakaway gaps in

Silver Entering Ludicrous Mode

Keith Schneider | July 26, 2020

** This week both Mish and Keith reviewed the big picture together. Market Outlook video contributed by Keith.   Equity markets stalled with all the key US indexes closing down, reversing a strong start for the week. The sell-off was led by the NASDQ 100, down -1.49%. The one exceptional move was in precious metals which broke free of its shackles of trading in lockstep with equities, led by silver that rose + 17.7% for the