The Monday Rule-of-Thumb Kicks In

May 15, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Geoff Bysshe


Stocks kicked off the week in bullish mood right from the opening bell.

It wasn’t a strong trend day, but for the SPY and QQQ it was a new closing high and a close near the high of the day. The SPY also appears to be attempting to break out of its multi-week consolidation.

The IWM wasn’t able to close near its high of the day or break out of its multi-week consolidation, so the jury is still out on whether the rest of the market is really ready to follow NASDAQ’s lead higher.

The Modern Family was all green with the exception of Retail (XRT), but last week’s carnage there slowed down today.

The key measure of the bulls resolve this week will be seen in whether IWM can break out of its consolidation to the up side.

There was one bullish phase change today by IBB, and two other family members are close to their 50 DMA so it could be an interesting week if Monday’s bullishness continues.

However, in the old rule of thumb for Monday’s is ‘never sell stocks on Monday in a bull market’.

This is only because Monday’s tend to be up days in bull markets. It doesn’t mean anything for the rest of the week.

Stay focused.

S&P 500 (SPY) Broke the 239-240 resistance couldn’t get off the launch pad. @39.45  is key support then 237.70 and 236.60.

Russell 2000 (IWM) 139.50 is pivotal then 141.50 is big to clear. 136.80 is the big support to hold.

Dow (DIA) Resistance at 210-212. 207.70 support

Nasdaq (QQQ) 137.50 support

KRE (Regional Banks) 52.45 support and through 54.50 better

SMH (Semiconductors) Another up day.

IYT (Transportation) 161.40 support and through 164.50 much better

IBB (Biotechnology) 287-284 the key support area held. Unconfirmed bullish phase. 296 maybe pivotal

XRT (Retail) 42.00 could hold and if it doesn’t look for 40.50-41.00 next

IYR (Real Estate) Stuck between 77 and 79.

GLD (Gold Trust) If it can fill the gap to 188 ok, if not, looks heavy

SLV (Silver) Stopped at 15.89 resistance and if this fails last week’s lows see 15.00 next.

GDX (Gold Miners) Looks better than gold but into some resistance now at 22.67-22.80

XME (S&P Metals and Mining) Needs to close over 29.60, should hold 28.80

USO (US Oil Fund) Cleared pivotal 10 area. See if it holds

XLE (Sel Energy Spdr Fd) Trying to rally,but weak. 69.15 area is the 50 DMA

XOP (Oil & Gas Exploration) Trying to rally,but weak. 34.90 key support

TAN (Solar Energy) 18.40 is key to break. Big resistance around 18.60

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) consolidation day

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