January 5, 2013
By Mish Schneider
The week ended with digression. S&P 500, Russell 2000 and the Dow closed well proving time is just as valid as price correction. NASDAQ however, mainly thanks to AAPL, closed weak although to its benefit, managed to hold the January 2nd low (day everything gapped higher.) Assuming the January 2nd holds in NASDAQ, the market internals are positive. If QQQ break further, it seems logical to conclude that new longs in other indexes could sell out and new investors waiting to get in could remain sidelined. Monday's action should set the tone for the week. Also important is the start of earnings season.
S&P 500 (SPY) 147.16 is the high from 10/05, now resistance. January 2 low-144.73 key to hold
Russell 2000 (IWM) 86.96 the possible extinct 2012 high is pivotal and a good key to watch as the week begins, especially given the weakness in QQQ. 86.04 is the January 2nd low.
Dow (DIA) Looks attracted to 135, a small gap from 10/18. Otherwise, 133.70 near-term pivotal area and 132.89 January 2nd low.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Took out January 2nd low by a tick and closed above making Friday low important level. Follow through to the downside will take this index down further maybe to around 65.66. Otherwise, will have to get above Thursday's high to see 71.00.
GLD 158.39 is the 12/20 low. 161.16 the 200 DMA
XLF (Financials)17.12-17.20 is the 2011 high which is 1st target from long position.
IBB (Biotechnology) Expectation is this will trade in line with market and not outperform like it did in 2012
SMH (Semiconductors) If ready to resume its run up, 32.99 should hold.
XRT (Retail) Still has to clear December resistance or vulnerable.
IYT (Transportation) 101 is the target.
IYR (Real Estate) 66.25 resistance. Then a gap to fill to 66.57 from September 19th.
USO (US Oil Fund) 33.95 -34.10 resistance to clear.
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) A bit toppy now after a massive move higher.
DVY 2012 highs 59.08 and although nearing short term overbought, looks like a good place for 2013
REE (Rare Element Reserve) Unconfirmed phase change to recovery.
XHB (Homebuilders) Inside day.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Confirmed recovery phase