November 13, 2017
By Mish Schneider
Vintage is everywhere.
Look at a stock like ETSY, Inc.
ETSY is an online shopping site that specializes in vintage items.
It reported last week. Sales, earnings per share and revenue were all up.
From the nadir in March until the multi-month peak in early November, that stock merits watching this week.
Many other retailers report this week-Home Depot, Dick’s Sporting Goods, TJ Maxx, Wal-Mart and Best Buy, to name a few.
Those retailers mainly represent the brick and mortar shops, even if they have an online presence as well.
The Retail Sector ETF we like to watch is XRT, or our Granny of the Modern Family.
Last week, XRT did the resuscitation thing and rallied from key support above 38.00.
Many articles, including my own Daily, have addressed the potential ripple effect to the economy should XRT fail 38.00
Will Granny benefit from vintage consumerism and play “base”?
Last week, certain sectors deteriorated in phases.
Transportation (IYT) confirmed a warning phase.
Biotechnology (IBB) is already in a warning phase.
Retail (XRT) is already in a bearish phase.
Moreover, the Russell 2000 (IWM) entered an unconfirmed warning phase.
That means it closed beneath the 50 daily moving average and must do so again tomorrow to confirm.
Should IWM fail 144.75 by the end of November, the top of the monthly channel, not a good sign at all.
Recovering from the Distribution Phase, Regional Banks (KRE) improved to an unconfirmed warning phase.
A second day confirmation or another close over 54.71 could mean more confidence in the business or finance sector. That will help.
With the Modern Family teetering on major failures, only Sister Semiconductors (SMH) yields confidence.
However, SMH, after the big red bar last Thursday, needs to hold current levels or could fail 102 and drop to 100 in a flash.
While Granny Retail keeps it old school in her vintage 1960’s silver platform high heel shoes, the retail earnings might very well turn out as the “guitar hero” or the “where are they now” for the market.
S&P 500 (SPY) SPY closed close to the 258-pivotal support. An open below that cannot find buyers will be troublesome
Russell 2000 (IWM) 146.65 pivotal as this holds on to the 50 DMA
Dow (DIA) Inside day. 234.80 the 10-DMA failed making that area pivotal.
Nasdaq (QQQ) A move under 153.25 that cannot recover will encourage weakness elsewhere
KRE (Regional Banks) Unconfirmed Warning phase. 55.27 the 50 DMA and 54.71 the 200 DMA
SMH (Semiconductors) 102.85 pivotal
IYT (Transportation) Came back some. Big volume on that comeback, so follow through will l help the market.
IBB (Biotechnology) 310 pivotal support holding on for dear life
XRT (Retail) Big week for our Granny
IYR (Real Estate) Support at 82.00
XLU (Utilities) New 2017 highs today
GLD (Gold Trust) Quiet day-still needs a close over 122
SLV (Silver) Like to see this clear 16.30
GDX (Gold Miners) Needs to clear 23.10 with volume
USO (US Oil Fund) Looks like sideways correction which is overall bullish
XOP (Oil & Gas Exploration) Cleared 35.52 the 50-week MA, which is a good risk point
TAN (Solar Energy) Second profit target hit today and a new 2017 high
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 123.50 the 200 DMA. 125.50 resistance
UUP (Dollar Bull) 24.37 the 200-week MA and 24.80 resistance