February 12, 2017
By Mish Schneider
“I've got the world on a string, sittin' on a rainbow
Got the string around my finger
What a world, what a life, I'm in love!” Frank Sinatra
What a week, what a market, we’re in love!
With 3 out of the 4 indices ending the week on new highs, at last we broke out over the 2-month consolidation of prices.
Well, nearly everyone that is.
Perhaps this is the part of the Fire Rooster in La La Land where folks gridlocked on the Interstate 105 take to the highway and dance.
Perhaps this is when speculators, who have remained sidelined, decide to drive onto the 105 because they now believe gridlock grows into a giant musical number.
Perhaps the song and dance between the Trump administration and the Asian leaders added just the right musical score.
Regardless of why more investors came out to watch the flamboyant rooster, the better question is for how long?
If the American Eagle has the world by a talon, then the Modern Family holds the U.S. economy in the palm of its hand.
But wait, the eagle’s world sits on a pedestal. Does the U.S. economy sit on a pedestal as well?
Since we’re going with the La La Land analogy, we are still left wondering if the Modern Family truly believes the hype.
For example, watching the Russell 2000 offers a birds-eye view into the minds of investors and how they perceive the U.S. economy going forward.
With earnings season still upon us, does the price action in IWM suggest justification in not only the recent move, but also the possibility of even more upside?
Friday, the Russell 2000 could not trade up to the early 2017 highs nor close above the January 6-month calendar range high.
Grandma Retail (XRT) managed to clear back over the January 6-month calendar range low. That’s the low people, not the high. Miles to go-with gridlock.
Transportation (IYT) did clear and close above the January 6-month calendar range high. Belief in infrastructure improvements and an increase in the distribution of goods across the country are tantamount.
Semiconductors beat her brother Trans to the race over the January highs. Regional Banks though, side more with Granddad Russell. Optimistic, but not over those crucial highs.
If our eagle has the “world on a string”, then Biotechnology has the market on one.
Since Big Brother Biotech is the Modern Family’s symbol of speculative interest, we must see IBB soar. With Volume.
“Life is a beautiful thing, as long as I hold the string,
I'd be a silly so and so, if I should ever let go.”
S&P 500 (SPY) Another new all-time high. 240 not out of the question as a target should it hold over 231 by the end of the month.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Over 138, 140 possible. At that point will be watching for signs of a blow off top.
Dow (DIA) Unless this break 200, you are free to roam about the cabin
Nasdaq (QQQ) 126 new pivotal area-especially on a monthly closing basis
KRE (Regional Banks) 56.73 is the January 6-month calendar range to clear.
SMH (Semiconductors) 75.40 pivotal
IYT (Transportation) 171.15 the double top number to clear. 166 must hold
IBB (Biotechnology) 285-287 big resistance and 277 big support
XRT (Retail) 43.75 pivotal
IYR (Real Estate) 79.00 the 200 DMA
GLD (Gold Trust) Held where it needed to. 120.65 the 200 DMA
SLV (Silver) Cleared 17.00 the 200 DMA so now in an unconfirmed accumulation phase
GDX (Gold Miners) Closed back above the 200 DMA which is better
USO (US Oil Fund) 11.60 next point to clear. 11.40 closest support
TAN (Solar Energy) Nice move over the 50 DMA with volume.
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 120 now key support
UUP (Dollar Bull) 25.80 support 26.20 resistance
FXI (China) A bit overbought now