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Market Outlook: Here’s the scariest news about China, and it’s not getting any press

August 30, 2015

By Geoff Bysshe

outlook20150831It would be fun to spew the so many interesting statistics that describe last week’s historic stock market collapse and rebound, but most important point doesn’t require statistics to make it clear. That point is that the complexion of the stock market just changed dramatically! The market is no longer waiting to pick a direction. It’s either cleansed the weak bulls so it can move higher, or it’s broken down and the new bear market has begun. If you ask famed asset manager and long-time member of the Barron’s Roundtable, Felix Zulauf, there is another wave of selling coming. According to Mr. Zulauf, China is leading the world down a path of deflation currently and obviously playing out in the commodity markets. This, he believes, will wreak havoc on global economies and markets – including the U.S. Despite his bearish stance he does admit that he covered many of his shorts last week, and will look to put them on again as the market bounces. On the other hand, the equally respected asset manager, Jim Paulson, is bullish on U.S. stocks and the economy because he sees the drop in commodity prices as an economic stimulus that will only enhance the effects of the global monetary easing efforts around the globe, including China’s. If you consider the massive upward revisions in U.S. GDP that were reported this week, it seems he might be right. According to Mr. Paulson, “The greatest recession risk typically occurs after a surge in commodity prices.” And he’s not referring to crude oil’s extraordinary 2 day move last Thursday and Friday! I suspect that they’ll both be right, just at different times. Timing is everything, and that’s why we use this weekly video to focus on market timing. In this week’s video I’ll give you 4 primary indicators to determine which direction the market is likely to move over the intermediate term, so you can catch the major move coming. Plus, I’ll reveal what I think is the scariest news about China right now. I don’t hear anyone talking about it, but you can see evidence of it disrupting the market last Tuesday! I hope it was a one day event, because if it accelerates it could cause serious problems for the markets and the Fed.