Archives: Weekly Market Outlook

A Melt Up and a Melt Down

Keith Schneider | February 20, 2017

US Equities took a que from events in Asia this week as the bulls murdered the bears in a very public show. The market is on a post-election tear not seem since LBJ took office, with the benchmark S&P 500 + 1.5% on the week and over 5% YTD. We observed  ( http://www.marketgauge.com/resources/littlebigview-trades-tutorials/a-canary-in-a-coal-mine-just-died-stock-market-beware /)  some very extreme and unusual price movement in options trading this week which might have indicated a blow off to this


Shark Tank

Keith Schneider | February 12, 2017

US Equities markets handled multiple faux paus of the new Trump administration as a sideshow and focused on an upcoming proposal to reduce taxes. The S&P 500, NASDQ 100, and the Dow Industrials (INDU) all soared to all time new highs and closed around +1% on the week. One thing to note however is that trading volume has dropped to levels not seen since 2007. It could be the sharks are swimming in the dark


Have ‘Animal Spirits’ Taken QE’s Place As The New Fuel For The Bulls?

Geoff Bysshe | February 5, 2017

President Trump has summoned up ‘animal spirits’ which seem to be taking more and more credit (or blame depending on your market bias), for the bull market. Here’s one way to keep your eye on them, so they don’t catch you by surprise. Additionally, this week’s video (below) will show you ways to let the market, not animal spirits drive you to the best trading opportunities. Over the last several weeks I’ve noticed more and


Is Mr Market’s Head in the Clouds?

Keith Schneider | January 29, 2017

If uncertainty is the market’s foe there seems to be a bad cell connection. Perhaps Mr. Market’s human nature is getting the best of him. US equities broke out of the 6-week compression zone led by tech and specifically semiconductor stocks. This propelled the NASDAQ 100 to an impressive gain of almost 5% for the week. Additionally, the Dow Industrials Index crossed the much anticipated 20,000 milestone, and despite it now being up 25% over


Bull Market Dancing on a Pin Head

Keith Schneider | January 21, 2017

This week the 4 key US equites ushered in the new president with a net neutral overall response. The NASDQ 100, the lead index over the past month, continued its trek higher with the IWM lagging after a blistering post-election rally. The bull market, although still intact seems, appears to be dancing on a pinhead.  There is a big disconnect between market action and reaction to our new president. Depending upon who you talk to,


Divergent

Keith Schneider | January 15, 2017

The US Equities Market paused this week after an almost 200 point intraday shakedown in the INDU on Thursday.  Equities recovered and essentially left prices where they started the week. NASDQ 100 was the exception as FANG stocks were hot, driving the NASDQ 100 to record highs. This Friday, on my way into a popular Santa Fe eatery for a business lunch, I ran into an acquaintance who happens to be a distinguished foreign service


The Exponentially Larger Chicken Little

Keith Schneider | January 7, 2017

The results for the first week of 2017 in US equites were impressive after a wobbly end of 2016. The S&P500 ended up +1.66% with NASDQ 100 up +2.86%. A far cry from the inverse action one year ago, For those market gurus calling for a major top, crash or zombie apocalypse, it all reminds me of the fable “Chicken Little.” Since this is the year of the Chicken per Chinese folklore, it seems appropriate


Hunting Season

Keith Schneider | December 18, 2016

The big news this week is that the Hawks at the Fed are circling the market. Hawks are raptors, carnivorous hunters. Will exhausted and weakened stock bulls be the special on the menu in 2017? US equities took a breather from the Trump bump, with the S&P 500 closing down fractionally this week. This muted action came after the Fed jacked rates by ¼ % this week and added some very Hawkish interest rate forecasts


What’s Making Stocks Great Again?

Geoff Bysshe | December 12, 2016

This week’s Market Outlook is late because I needed to figure out the data behind the market secret covered below. As traders or investors, we can probably agree on the fact that too much of a good thing usually doesn’t end well. However, an ‘overbought’, or ‘over exuberant’ market can also be indicative of more good things to come. So which is it right now? Has Trump’s mantra of let’s ‘Make America Great Again’ translated


A New Episode

Keith Schneider | December 4, 2016

This week, three out of the four key US equity indexes posted weekly losses, signaling a pause in the post-election rally. More telling is that market internals which hit frothy levels have been weakening. Volume indicators are showing distribution in the NASDQ 100. FANG stocks and semi-conductors led the retreat with the exception of Netflix. What can be inferred from this market action is that people are suffering post traumatic election stress and are tuning