Archives: Weekly Market Outlook

Bankers, Bitcoins, Bubbles, and Breaking Bad

Keith Schneider | June 25, 2017

This week, tech and biotech stocks led the market. The Healthcare sector roared with the prospect of higher profits, should Obamacare be shelved. IBB, the biotech ETF rallied 9.57%. There are so many concurrent, self-reinforcing bubbles, it’s hard to choose a favorite. The first, the flood of money from central banks and bond market, is telling us two things: The Fed will not raise again soon, nor reduce its balance sheet. Good enough reasons for


Existential Questions and the Current Market Rally

Keith Schneider | June 18, 2017

The rotation out of tech and into big cap Dow /Industrial value stocks continued as the NASDQ 100 (QQQ) closed - 1.8 % for the week and those boring Dow stocks(DIA) closed positive +.4%. Sector rotation out of tech and semiconductors continued while the flight to safer plays such as utilities (XLU)and the undervalued Industrials sector (XLI) remained strong. Last week we highlighted that value stocks have underperformed tech for the last 15 years and


Changing of the Guard to Value?

Keith Schneider | June 11, 2017

What looked like the start of another leg up of a parabolic run for NASDQ 100 (QQQ) disappointingly turned into a rout, with some key stocks dropping up to 10% from the gap up Friday morning. Some are calling it a “flash crash,” with the QQQ down 2.4 % on Friday.  For example, AMZN opened at 1012, retreated down to 927, then closed at 977.40. This type of volatility is usually reserved for earnings announcements,


Clear Skies for Equities; But What About Gold?

Keith Schneider | June 4, 2017

US Equities markets didn’t even blink with the announcement that the United States is now aligned with Syria in rejecting the Paris Climate Accord. How that relates to good business over the longer term seems elusive. This week’s market action demonstrates how equities pricing horizon is all about the next quarter. Hence, all our key indexes closed at all-time highs with the NASDQ 100 (QQQ) up over 21% YTD. All key US equity indexes were


A Slap, A Shove and a Bump

Keith Schneider | May 28, 2017

The US equities markets recovered after its nasty swoon on May 17, following in Melania’s footsteps.  It gave the markets a meek slap on the wrist before bumping up to all-time highs with a 6-day consecutive run-up. Equities even endured Trump’s shove of both the core NATO doctrine (article 5) and Dusko Markovic, the leader and newest member of NATO, Montenegro. Trump then went on to another event and threatened to put tariffs on German


The Cycle Finale?

Keith Schneider | May 21, 2017

The second-longest running soap opera As the World Turns lasted 54 years, but had to finally turn off its tacky lights in 2010 because of low ratings. In a similar fashion, the long-lasting 8-year leadership of US-based assets are flickering off because of bad ratings due to a bad script. That’s not to say the actual bull market is over here in the States, but leadership is turning to Europe which can be attributed to


Asymmetrical Risk Setup in the S&P

Keith Schneider | May 13, 2017

The very bullish NASDQ 100 (QQQ) continued to chew up both the bears and non-believers with its recently-polished set of FANGS. Meanwhile, retail stocks with a physical presence tanked, with AMZN picking up the slack.  The Russell 2000 (IWM)— a broad measure of domestic-based stocks-- continues to languish, up just 2% YTD compared to the QQQ’s (which are up almost 17%!). The new normal environment includes one or two controversial White House actions and dozens


Eurovasion

Keith Schneider | May 6, 2017

This week, US equities markets put in a positive performance with the S & P 500 (SPY) +.69% for the week and closing at all-time highs but still lagging Eurozone equities by a whopping   5%. Eurozone equities soared, anticipating a happy re-euro-in with most polls showing Macron widening his lead after a nasty debate with Le-Pen. Even though US equites finished near or on all-time highs (except for the Russell 2000), volatility popped a little


To Frexit or Not to Frexit

Keith Schneider | April 30, 2017

Global Equities partied on this week.  Mr. Market took a deep breath and exhaled a sigh of relief, convinced that France will remain in the Euro. After the weekend election, French stocks had its biggest one-day rally since 2012, up over +5%. Marine Le Pen, the right wing, anti-Euro/ Euro-zone, populist leader of the National Front is likely to be the loser in the final run-off vote scheduled on May 7. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions continue


Global Chest Thumping.

Keith Schneider | April 23, 2017

US equities rallied this week, with the S &P 500 up +.9% and the Russel 2000 (IWM) up +2.6%, regaining a bullish market phase. The Nasdaq 100 closed at all-time highs. Several sectors gained ground including semiconductors which reasserted itself as the leading sector and regained its bullish phase. Some safe havens such as Utilities and Gold paused this week, which is a positive for equities. This occurred despite increased geopolitical tensions that included chest